This is a regular feature which will run every Sunday night up until polling day, to include the last set of figures from each pollster, as well as the current seat spreads from the betting markets, and also international updates. The pollsters Last poll from each pollster Con LD Lab Oth Lead YouGov 2 May 34 29 28 9 Con 5 ICM 2 May 33 28 28 11 Con 5 BPIX 1 May 34 30 27 9 Con 4 ComRes…
YouGov – the Sun May 2 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 34% 35% LIB DEMS 29% 28% LABOUR 28% 27% UPDATE – ICM ICM – Guardian May 2 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 33% 36% LIB DEMS 28% 27% LABOUR 28% 29% Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK election game is available here – entries close 7am BST Thursday
The chart, from Bestbetting, shows the changing prices on the exchanges, expressed as an implied percentage, to developments over the past 24 hours. As can be seen the markets did what markets almost always do – they over-reacted. Now the gap between the Tory majority and a hung parliament has moved to the 53-47 range as we wait for more polling. I just wonder whether we’ll get a “bank holiday” poll with a very different picture. It happened at precisely…
OnePoll – The People May 1 Apr 24 CONSERVATIVES 30% 32% LIB DEMS 32% 32% LABOUR 21% 23% Which’ll be closest: phone polling or on-line? Above is the latest from new pollster, OnePoll, for today’s People – the paper that used to commission YouGov until the exclusive deal by that firm with News International in February. We don’t know much about OnePoll but this is their fourth campaign survey for the paper which I think ought to be recorded. Like…
Election Winning leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959 Harold Macmillan University of Oxford 1964 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1966 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1970 Edward Heath University of Oxford 1974 Feb Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1974 Oct Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1979 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1983 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1987 Margaret…
Could the numbers turn again? It’s been quite an afternoon on the betting markets as punters digested the poll news what was coming in and then piled into a Tory overall majority. So NOM – the favourite of only a few hours ago – is back to odds against and a Tory majority is odds on. The chart, from Bestbetting, shows how the exchanges reacted with the odds expressed as percentages. UPDATE BPIX – Mail on Sunday BPIX – Mail…
YouGov – Sunday Times YouGov – Sunday Times May 1 Apr 30 CONSERVATIVES 35% 34% LIB DEMS 28% 28% LABOUR 27% 28% ComRes – Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday ComRes S. Mirror/IoS May 1 Apr 28 CONSERVATIVES 38% 36% LIB DEMS 25% 26% LABOUR 28% 29% ICM Sunday Telegraph ICM – Sunday Telegraph Apr 30 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 36% 33% LIB DEMS 27% 30% LABOUR 29% 28% Angus Reid – Sunday Express Angus Reid – Sunday Express May 1 Apr 26…