politicalbetting.com

At what stage could Sunak be in trouble? Thursday is a big day for the PM whose party is facing three very difficult defences in Westminster by-elections. The betting odds for what they are worth won’t give any encouragement to Number 10. In Selby LAB is rated by punters as having an 87% chance; in Uxbridge an 87% chance while the betting markets are currently rating the LDs as having an 97% chance in Somerton and Frome. I have not…

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Something for those who are betting and expecting a (large) Labour majority to consider. TSE

Brexit isn’t working Brexit isn’t going very well in the eyes of the public, this finding from Ipsos isn’t atypical from what other pollsters find. The reality is neither major GB wide parties are where the public currently are. I acknowledge that thinking Brexit is going negatively that there’s no automaticity that people will want to Rejoin. The reality is the Brexit status quo is unsustainable and eventually one or both parties will give the people what they want, that’s…

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My last article, arguing Labour are rightly favourite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a very fair rebuttal from some commenters. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labour are hardly a party with a history of by-election upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for. The Lib Dems have enjoyed three by-election victories since the last election, winning not just Remain-leaning Chesham & Amersham but also Leave seats in North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton. In these latter two seats they…

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My immediate reaction to this latest polling from Ipsos is that it can be a lot harder for the incumbent PM to do well on this question than the Opposition Leader. Quite simply the former has to make decisions that are often controversial. Assuming Starmer is at Number 10 within the next eighteen months then he will start to struggle on this measure when he has to make tough calls. Whatever I have always regarded this form of polling as…

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One thing’s for sure – CON MPs aren’t betting on a CON majority As can be seen the betting markets are rating the chance of a CON majority as an 10.4% chance which is way off the YouGov polling of Tory MPs. This is of course backed up by real money. The big number to look at in the next eighteen months or so is the number of CON MPs who will not be defending their seats at the next…

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The polling that could screw-up a BoJo comeback Thanks to TSE for spotting this one – the past vote split on whether Johnson should try to return as an MP. For as can be seen 47% of GE2019 Tory voters who backed Leave say he shouldn’t with 43% saying he should. So a clear majority of those who had a view don’t want him back. This goes very much against the narrative of him being an electoral asset. Yes he…

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