Smarkets have this market up on the next general election on out of the SNP and the Lib Dems, who will win the most seats. I can understand why the Lib Dems are the favourites in this market but I wouldn’t be surprised if the SNP won this market. Whilst this has been an annus horribilis for the SNP, particularly for the past and present leadership, with the Westminster voting intention polls (and the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election) that…
I have been wondering for a while that Labour could be damaged by recent events in the Middle East and this poll is further proof of that hypothesis being proven. Like many things Starmer might be being shielded by how badly the Tories are doing both in absolute and relative terms to Labour and the fact events in the Middle East might not have the same salience on election day compared to today. On election day I cannot see many…
It was late and great American rapper The Notorious B.I.G. who sang ‘Mo Money, Mo Problems’ and I wonder if Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt might be thinking the same as The Notorious B.I.G. Because of the fiscal headroom has increased by nearly £14 billion since March there is demand for tax cuts from the cosplaying Thatcherites who seem to forget Lady Thatcher only cut taxes after ensuring the public finances were in a sound position which meant taxes went…
PBers will notice that I have not been active recently. Just over a fortnight ago I had a fall which is not a very good thing for someone approaching their 78th birthday. I was in Hospital for several nights (it seemed like an eternity) and hopefully will make a recovery. Next year offers so much in the political betting arena with the high chance of a UK General Election and of course in November the White House Race. I really…
Despite inflating being above the target Rishi Sunak has presented the recent falls in inflation as a success unfortunately it appears the public will not give him any credit. This I suspect fits in a wider issue that is plaguing Sunak, he grates with the public, taking credit it for successes that he really doesn’t deserve, he blamed inflation on world events such as Ukraine, he only wants to take credit it for the good things and nothing for the…
I remember the overthrow of the Shah quite vividly. Television coverage of young radicals with guns out on the street demanding the end of corruption, a more open society and a better distribution of wealth. The Shah fled and Ayatollah Khomeini flew into a tumultuous welcome. Then the state clammed up and the revolution ate its children. For over forty years now Iran has presented an austere face to the outside world, a theocratic monolith prepared to face off to…
As the grandson of humble immigrants from Pakistan I am fascinated by polling like this. I often say that the UK is not a racist country, there’s so many examples of it not being, primus inter pares being that Scotland, London, and the UK are led by people whose antecedents came from the same place as my grandparents did. This doesn’t mean racism doesn’t exist in the UK but there’s much more positives than negatives. Some of the findings in…
In response to our independent judiciary it appears Sunak is going to scweam and scweam and ignore them but I don’t think he’ll get much of a polling boost judging by these poll findings. The only popular thing he’s done recently is fire Suella Braverman. As an aside, I am surprised that Arsenal fans Sir Keir Starmer and Jeremy Corbyn haven’t kicked off about their team ‘s shirt sponsor being ‘Visit Rwanda’. They should remember Arsenal fans with political ambitions…