Is it foolhardy to be betting against YouGov?

Is it foolhardy to be betting against YouGov?

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Why are punters ignoring the polling? The great mystery of the 2010 Labour leadership race has been that David Miliband has continued to be an odds-on favourite even though the only members’ and trade unionists’ polling since voting began showed that he was losing in these two segments of the electoral college. True the ex-foreign secretary has drifted from 1.2 on Betfair since the publication of the Sunday Times poll eleven days ago but he’s still the heavy odds-on favourite….

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Which one will be smiling on Saturday afternoon?

Which one will be smiling on Saturday afternoon?

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Will YouGov have got this one right? Voting closed dead on 1700 in the election of Labour’s next leader. All the contenders were encourage stragglers right until the end to get votes in online. Now we’ve got a three day wait for the ballot forms in this complex election to be counted. The count is being carried out by the Electoral Reform Society without any Labour or campaign representative there. The ERS has a good reputation for confidentiality and I…

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Will the winner’s first act be to take on his MPs?

Will the winner’s first act be to take on his MPs?

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Should HE choose the shadow cabinet – not the PLP? Whichever of the brothers wins Labour’s election (and online voting finishes at 5pm) he will inherit a structure which drastically reduces his ability to lead and shape the party in the manner that he thinks fit. For Labour, when in opposition, has an archaic rule that means that the shadow cabinet is elected by MPs and is not chosen by the leader. The winner will be castrated before he starts….

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On Vince’s big day he’s 2/1 favourite to leave first

On Vince’s big day he’s 2/1 favourite to leave first

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First cabinet member to leave Party Price Vince Cable Lib Dem 2/1 William Hague Conservative 4/1 Liam Fox Conservative 5/1 Chris Huhne Lib Dem 8/1 Iain Duncan Smith Conservative 8/1 Theresa May Conservative 14/1 Michael Gove Conservative 16/1 Andrew Lansley Conservative 16/1 Michael Moore Lib Dem 20/1 Andrew Mitchell Conservative 20/1 Nick Clegg Lib Dem 20/1 Owen Paterson Conservative 25/1 Danny Alexander Lib Dem 25/1 Jeremy Hunt Conservative 25/1 Kenneth Clarke Conservative 25/1 Eric Pickles Conservative 25/1 Caroline Spelman Conservative…

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Was agreeing to the debates Brown’s biggest mistake?

Was agreeing to the debates Brown’s biggest mistake?

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Without them could Labour have held on? As part of the ongoing row over Tory election tactics the observations of party campaign chief, George Osborne, have been made public. These are due to be published shortly in Dennis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s big academic study – British General Election of 2010. They write: “In an implied admission that the media attention on the debates – preparations, build-up and post-debate analysis – squeezed the amount of discussion of policies a senior…

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Charlie Whelan “goes large” on EdM

Charlie Whelan “goes large” on EdM

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Should punters take notice? Apologies to PBers who are bored by the Labour leadership but this is a huge political betting event which is all going to be resolved on Saturday and many have large sums at risk. The outcome, of course, will have a major impact on British politics for years to come. Labour is electing someone it hopes will be the next Prime Minister. So far today we’ve had Dan Hodges at Labour Uncut saying that DaveM has…

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Are Labour members driving John Rentoul to despair?

Are Labour members driving John Rentoul to despair?

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Why do so many EdM voters think DM would be better? The uber-uber Tony Blair and now David Miliband loyalist, John Rentoul blogged overnight about some YouGov polling figures which are driving him to despair. For Rentoul, of the Independent of Sunday, is disturbed that the polling suggests that his man won’t make it in the Labour election although a large chunk of those voting Ed Miliband think that DavidM is more likely to lead his party to victory at…

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Poll blow for the LDs on Clegg’s big speech day

Poll blow for the LDs on Clegg’s big speech day

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It’s now 42/38/11 Tonight’s News International-funded daily poll by YouGov has the Lib Dems down to 11 percent – a level the party has only touched once before since the general election. The shares are: CON 42% LAB 38%: LD 11%. The fieldwork will mostly have taken place before Clegg’s speech this afternoon but after a weekend when the party was getting a high level of attention in the media. If this is mirrored in the next ICM poll then…

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