The Polls: Does anybody really know where we stand?

The Polls: Does anybody really know where we stand?

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Polling ranges Oct 8 – 16 High Low CONSERVATIVES 43 (YouGov) 38 (ICM) LABOUR 40 (YouGov) 34 (ICM & ComRes) LIB DEMS 18 (ICM) 11 (YouGov) Why the difference between the pollsters? As we start this critical political week it is extraordinarily hard to come to any real conclusions about where opinion stands from the polling. Just look at the ranges that we’ve seen since last weekend and the different pictures that the three polling organisations – ICM, YouGov and…

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Are these ComRes questions leading?

Are these ComRes questions leading?

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Will the findings tell us much about public opinion? According to the the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul there’s a new ComRes poll tonight which as well as the standard voting intention question asks whether people agree or disagree with the following:- “The Coalition Government understands the interests of the wealthy better than the interests of ordinary people” “It is fair that students should pay more for their university education even though their parents’ generation didn’t” “Welfare benefit cuts will…

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What price a pre-2015 election?

What price a pre-2015 election?

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Is this the week we find out just how strong the coalition is? Back in May, it all looked so easy, relaxed and natural. Cameron and Clegg joking at the press conference in the Number Ten garden, negotiations concluded smoothly between the parties, ministers working together round the cabinet table and so on. This week, it was a lot harder, with Lib Dem MP’s voting for huge rises in tuition fees and Tory MP’s voting for the UK’s contribution to…

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Will Laws be back this year?

Will Laws be back this year?

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Suddenly the man who was Chief Secretary to the Treasury for 18 days, David Laws is back in the news again. Earlier in the week he gave evidence before a commons committee on the formation of the coalition and at the end of the month a book with his account of the negotiations will be published. But what are the chances of him becoming a minister again? Political Smarkets have a market up with options of “during 2010”; the first…

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Is the poverty move the LDs “reward” for student fees?

Is the poverty move the LDs “reward” for student fees?

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Which would his party prefer – help for students or poor children? A key reason, I believe, why there have been just two changes of government during the past 30 years is that whoever is in power has so much control over the news agenda. The ability, day in and day out, to make announcements that grab the headlines is awesome. Not only does it keep your people up-front apparently doing popular things but sophisticated scheduling of stories can often…

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Are voters more enthusiastic for AV the more they understand?

Are voters more enthusiastic for AV the more they understand?

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Amended First past the post ALL % AV voters FPTP voters WON’T VOTE Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works 65 78 78 35 Heard of it – not sure how it works 18 14 15 22 Never heard of FPTP 17 8 7 43 Alternative vote ALL % AV voters FPTP voters WON’T VOTE Heard of it and have broad idea of how it works 33 48 38 14 Heard of it– not sure of…

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Now you can bet on Hancock’s and Woolas’s future

Now you can bet on Hancock’s and Woolas’s future

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Where will the first by-election be held? The enterprising betting exchange, Political Smarkets, has just opened an ingenious market on which you can bet on both Phil Woolas and Mike Hancock. The betting proposition is simple – where will be next parliamentary by election be held? The options are Oldham East and Saddleworth, Portsmouth South, Fermanagh and South Tyrone and any other seat. Current prices make make “any other seat” the 55% favourite with Phil Woolas’s “Old & Sad” at…

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Is this the most high-profile case so far?

Is this the most high-profile case so far?

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BBC News What a busy morning for political news – the squeeze on high-earners pension contribution; the bonfire of the quangos, and now the news that high-profile former minister, Denis MacShane, has been suspended from the parliamentary Labour party after the Commons Standards and Privileges Committee, agreed MacShane’s conduct should be reported to the Metropolitan Police. Denis, who I knew well at the BBC in the late 1970s, is by far the highest-profile MP to have been referred to the…

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