Jonathan’s Sunday Slot in the coalition’s future

Jonathan’s Sunday Slot in the coalition’s future

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Could we see posters like this? A big question hanging over politics is the possibility of a formal Lib Dem Conservative pact at the next general election. How likely do we think it is? Whether you are a political punter or involved in politics, until this question is resolved, it is impossible to make any long term predictions. Senior Conservatives have certainly been flirting with the idea in public. To date Nick Boles MP has been the ringleader. In his…

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What’ll be the impact of Cameron’s by-election move?

What’ll be the impact of Cameron’s by-election move?

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Oldham E & Saddleworth result – general election Party Votes % Change on 2005 Phil Woolas Labour 14186 31.9 -10.7 Elwyn Watkins Lib Dem 14083 31.6 -0.5 Kashif Ali Conservative 11773 26.4 8.7 Alwyn Stott BNP 2546 5.7 0.6 David Bentley UKIP 1720 3.9 1.8 Gulzar Nazir Christian Party 212 0.5 0.5 Are the blues being given permission to vote yellow? The big overnight Old & Sad story is a report from Melissa Kite in the Sunday Telegraph saying that…

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Very little change from ComRes online

Very little change from ComRes online

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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/IoS-S.Mirror(Online) 17/12/10 37 39 11 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 19/11/10 37 38 13 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (O) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Independent on Sunday (O) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 And the…

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How will the parties campaign in OE&S?

How will the parties campaign in OE&S?

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How do they motivate the voters at Holiday time? It is unlikely that Saddleworth in January has ever been mistaken for Barbados. It is also unlikely that there will be a surge of enthusiasm in the next two weeks from local voters to discover the intricacies of the various candidates’ policies in the forthcoming by-election to succeed Phil Woolas. The combination of these two things will make the Oldham East & Saddleworth election different from the norm and the parties…

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Tonight’s by-election betting prices

Tonight’s by-election betting prices

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Oldham E betting LABOUR LIB DEMS TORIES Ladbrokes 2/9 (1/7) 9/2 (5/1) 10/1 William Hill 1/5 (1/7) 4/1 (7/1) 10/1 (8/1) Victor Chandler 1/6 6/1 10/1 Smarkets 0.31/1 100/15 10/01/10 Betfair 30/100 (1/5) 24/5 (10/30) 81/5 (7/1) Doubts about Tory commitment sends punters to the yellows There’s been quite a lot of movement on the by-election markets in response to the growing narrative that the blues are not really trying – reinforced during the afternoon by ambivalent comments from the…

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Is David Cameron betting on a Lib Dem victory?

Is David Cameron betting on a Lib Dem victory?

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ConHome If so – should you be doing the same? According to Jonathan Isaby in ConservativeHome there are signs that the Tories are not really trying to win the Old & Sad by-election. He writes: ..I am detecting increasing concerns from various quarters that the party machine is not putting its all behind Kashif Ali’s campaign to win the seat in which he was less than 2,500 votes behind the winning candidate in May. Many of those I have spoken…

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MORI on how the three leaders are being perceived

MORI on how the three leaders are being perceived

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But was the poll as bad for EdM as first reported? One of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that their polls are generally accompanied by a mass of data and analysis that go well beyond the standard voting intention questions. The above chart is from this weeks survey for Reuters and sets out how those sampled responded to a range of standardised questions about Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Miliband’s position on most of the measures is basically down to…

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Oldham E & Saddleworth – the opening prices

Oldham E & Saddleworth – the opening prices

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Oldham E & Saddleworth by-election betting LABOUR LIB DEMS TORIES Ladbrokes 1/7 5/1 10/1 William Hill 1/7 7/1 8/1 Victor Chandler 1/6 6/1 10/1 Smarkets 0.31/1 4.88/1 4.55/1 Betfair 1/5 7/2 10/1 From what I can see there are five current betting markets on the Old & Sad by election that takes place on January 13th. Labour is the heavy odds-on favourite in all of them though there is some variation. Be warned – getting bets of a reasonable size…

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