Labour take the lead in ComRes phone poll

Labour take the lead in ComRes phone poll

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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 15/10/10 40 34 14 ComRes/Independent (Online) 01/10/10 39 36 15 ComRes/Indy on Sunday (Online) 16/09/10 37 35 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 05/09/10 38 34 18 ComRes/Mirror/GMTV (Phone) 15/08/10 39 33 15 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 08/08/10 39 33 16 ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/06/10 40 31 18 Are we now seeing the affect of the cuts? Tonight’s survey from ComRes in the Indy is the first for…

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The US Mid-Terms – TimT’s final predictions

The US Mid-Terms – TimT’s final predictions

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How bad will tomorrow be for the Democrats? The final day and the dice are cast. Early voting has been heavy, but returns by party affiliation may be of little value in predicting either turnout (the percentage of voters voting early is expected to increase) or relative turnout between the parties. Neither campaign changed tactics much over the last few weeks. The GOP kept banging the anti-Obama/Pelosi/Reid drum, the Democrat House campaigns went nastily ad hominem, and the President sought…

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It’s C35/L37/LD15 with Angus Reid

It’s C35/L37/LD15 with Angus Reid

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Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % Angus Reid/? 28/10/10 35 37 15 Angus Reid/Sunday Express 01/10/10 35 38 16 Labour leads for the second month running There’s a new online poll from Angus Reid – only the second such survey since the general election. As can be seen Labour are still in the lead though it’s down a point on last month. What’s not seen above is the SNP figure which stands at an extraordinary 4%. The big…

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How many UKIP voters REALLY care about the EU?

How many UKIP voters REALLY care about the EU?

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Has Britain’s membership ceased to be an issue? Last week my post on the public not really “caring a monkey’s” about the EU caused a little bit of a stir in some places. My argument was simple – we’ve been in the EU for 37 years and Britain’s membership has ceased to be an issue for all but a very small minority on voters. I quoted the latest MORI issues index where those naming the Europe/EU as the “most important…

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Is discipline breaking down within Labour?

Is discipline breaking down within Labour?

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UPDATED Could Labour MP,Tom Harris, himself be in trouble? The above spoof ad has been published by Labour blogger Tom Harris MP under the heading “I do hope the NEC will approve…” to illustrate what the party’s London mayoral candidate, Ken Livingstone, did during the recent campaign for the mayoralty of Tower Hamlets. It will be recalled that the party replaced the controversial Muslim leader, Lutfur Rahman, as the official Labour candidate two months before polling but this did not…

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Sean Fear looks to next May’s locals

Sean Fear looks to next May’s locals

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How much potential is there for Labour progress? Regular readers of this blog will know that I regard local by-election results as being a good lead indicator of the next round of local elections. Despite having gigantic opinion poll leads from 1997-2003, the last Labour government regularly lost ground in successive rounds of local elections, during that period. Local by-elections pointed to these losses, whereas national opinion polls did not. The point should be obvious. National opinion polls are snapshots…

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Half of Labour voters support housing benefit cap

Half of Labour voters support housing benefit cap

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“Support or oppose cap on housing benefit” (YouGov) All sampled CON voters % LAB voters% LD voters % Support 72 94 52 78 Oppose 16 3 35 11 Don’t know 13 3 14 11 Should the red team and Boris re-think their strategies? After a week when domestic politics has been almost taken over by the row on housing benefit there is some polling on the issue – by YouGov for today’s Sunday Times. The findings with cross tabs on…

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Could terror test the coalition’s libertarian credentials?

Could terror test the coalition’s libertarian credentials?

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How will Cameron resolve the control orders row? The latest terror threats could not have come at a worse time for the coalition partners because, as Andrew Rawnsely reports in the Observer this morning, there’s a huge row going on about the future of control orders and extended detention without trial. There’s a report waiting to be published which says that these should continue in a slightly restricted form – something that would be totally opposed by Nick Clegg’s party….

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