Is this the day that will decide the next election?
Will Osborne’s big gamble succeed? Well we are here at least – what will almost certainly be the defining day of the coalition government. If Osborne & co have got this right then the this will be seen in an improving economy as we get nearer to 2015 which could produce a second victory for a Cameron-led government, with or without the Liberal Democrats. If the Osborne medicine is wrong then the political consequences for the coalition partners could be…
So what would you do Mr. Richards?
Twitter Isn’t this a bit melodramatic? Generally I’ve got a lot of time for the Indy’s Steve Richards but his Tweet a few minutes has left me almost speechless. Yes we do have vibrant cities but I don’t get this reference to the 80s. Yes Labour was out of power for the entire decade and seven years more but that was largely due to choosing unelectable leaders. Neither Foot nor Kinnock were ever going to be the match for Mrs….
Cuts Week – Day 2
Is it smart to bring all the bad news together? The sheer scale of what we are seeing this week is quite incredible. I can’t recall a period as intensive as this when so many announcements of such a magnitude were compressed into such a short period. The strategy, taking a five year time-span, is to get all the bad news out early so that by the time the coalition partners are going to the country then this will seem…
Is the plan to reduce the numbers of MPs being abandoned?
What’s the meaning of the Mulholland Tweet? Thanks to Gary Barford on the previous thread for picking up this one – for it could have a major impact on how the next general election is fought. The Lib Dem MP, Greg Mulholland, reports simply – Have had my amendments accepted for the Parliamentary Voting System etc Bill – to postpone boundary changes till after the next election. Unless I’m reading this wrong it looks as though the coalition might be…
The Tories re-take the lead with Ipsos-MORI
But encouraging leader approval numbers for EdM The monthly Ipsos-MORI monitor for Reuters is just out and has encouraging news for both the Tories and Ed Miliband – as the charts above show. As seems to be the pattern now the non-YouGov polls are showing the Tories and Labour on lower levels than we see daily in the News International surveys by YouGov. The MORI methodology is different from all the other pollsters. There is no weighting to try to…
Did the debates cost Labour at least 20 seats?
Rod Crosby on the impact of Brown’s decision to take part After working hard in the run-up to the election I took a break for a while, and have really only just begun the post-mortem on my predictions and the actual result. One thing that caught my eye is this graph. For those who don’t recall, I promoted the Kalman Filter as the best way of “averaging” the polls, and as far as the critical Tory lead was concerned it…
YouGov: Boris just ahead in the 2012 Mayoral race
YouGov London ALL voters CON GE LAB GE LD GE General election CON 38 100 0 0 General election LAB 42 0 100 0 General election LD 13 0 0 100 1st choice BORIS 46 85 12 38 1st choice KEN 44 10 78 38 1st choice LD 4 2 2 23 BORIS forced choice 46 84 17 42 KEN forced choice 41 12 76 45 Could Ken close the gap? May 2012 seems an awful long time off but…