Ed and Ed in 1997 How’s the new line-up going to play? What a dramatic couple of hours and it’s hard coming to an instant judgement over what all this means. I think EdM is probably the most damaged for doing what amounts to a massive U-turn over Balls. What’s different now compared with last September when he decided to exclude Ed Balls from his economic team? There’s not an easy explanation. If Balls was not okay then why is…
It looks like Balls has got the job he craved This is developing and more will follow. 1701 It’s just been confirmed that Balls will be taking over. Mike Smithson
What are the chances of him actually going? Following the growing criticism of the speaker, John Bercow, the PB thread last night and now the main Times leader this morning Ladbrokes have put up a “Will Bercow survive?” market. The prices are: “John Bercow to leave post of Speaker in 2011” – 3/1. “John Bercow to remain as Speaker until end 2011” – 1/5 Certainly anger amongst Tory MPs has been growing following the incident featured in the clip above…
AV referendum question – actual wording on the ballot (ICM 10,011 sample poll) YES % NO % All 59 41 Scotland 65 35 North 62 38 North West 57 43 Yorks 57 43 East Midlands 56 44 West Midlands 57 43 Wales 59 41 Eastern 59 41 Greater London 60 40 South East 61 39 South West 61 39 Would a delay in the timing favour the NOES One of the consequences of the big Labour filibuster in the House…
Could we see another speaker being forced out? The above is a quick Google News search that I did earlier this evening on the speaker, John Bercow, and as can be seen he’s involved in quite a range of different controversies which will just add to the “whispering campaign” amongst Tory MPs that is said to be going on. Their complaint is that he’s being unduly helpful to Labour and over-harsh the government, particularly members of the party that he…
How did you actually vote in the by-election (Populus) CON 2010 % LAB 2010 % LD 2010 % Conservative 49 0 3 Labour 5 91 29 Lib Dem 33 5 55 UKIP 9 1 7 BNP 2 1 0 GREEN 1 2 4 OTHER 3 0 2 Is UKIP starting to benefit from the coalition? The Tory peer and benefactor, Michael Ashcroft, funded a call-back poll in Oldham E and Saddleworth and the key voter churn figures are featured in…
The LibDem Collapse, Fact or Fiction The latest polls indicate that if another general election were to be held tomorrow Labour would sweep back to power with a majority (assuming uniform swing) of 46 over all other parties. The Conservatives would lose 45 seats, despite maintaining their 2010 share of the vote. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile would lose 41 of their 57 MPs, leaving them representing a paltry 16 Constituencies. In 7 short months since the 2010 election, 6 in…
I am delighted to announce that Nick Sparrow, formerly the head pollster at ICM, has accepted an invitation to write some articles on polling for PB. To my mind Nick is the UK’s leading political pollster and in the mid-90s pioneered the system that we now know as “past vote weighting” to ensure political balanced samples. It was he who argued that the 1992 general election polling debacle was the result of samples based on demographic weightings alone no longer…