Smoke and Mirrors. The art of poll weighting So far, in 2011, the polls have had the Conservatives as high as 41% and as low as 32%, Labour as high as 44% and as low as 39%, meanwhile the estimate of support for the LibDems has ranged from 15% to just 7%. Such variation can suggest only one of two things; either the electorate is in a nervous state of flux or the methods used by the polling companies produce…
Or will he be out within days? The drama in Tahrir Square being played out on TV screens round the world goes on but the latest news does not look good for the incumbent. The Egyptian Army chief has told the BBC that it will fire at pro-Mubarak ‘protestors’ if they attack anti-Mubarak protestors. That surely must signal the start of the end game. Without their support the president is surely finished. He says that he wants to serve out…
BBC news Is TV experience key in the political PR battle? As someone who spent a chunk of my early career as a BBC journalist and editor I think that Cameron has made the right call in choosing a broadcasting news man to be head of communications at Number 10. The move is in sharp contrast with Ed Miliband who has recently appointed two senior newspapermen to fill his key communication roles. I’ve no knowledge of Craig Oliver himself but…
BBC news
Independent Are we seeing another OES-type move to help Nick? Andrew Grice in the Independent is reporting this morning that there’s growing concern in Tory ranks over what David Cameron might be planning over electoral reform . He writes: “There are growing fears among Tory backbenchers that some Cameron allies would be privately relaxed about a Yes vote in the referendum, since it would give Mr Clegg a big prize and almost certainly ensure that the Coalition lasted until the…
Newspaper circulation figures December 2010 January 2000 Change +/- Daily Mirror 1,133,440 2,270,543 -50.08% Daily Star 713,602 502,647 41.97% The Sun 2,717,013 3,557,336 -23.62% Daily Express 623,689 979,042 -36.30% Daily Mail 2,030,968 2,353,915 -13.72% The Daily Telegraph 631,280 1,022,263 -38.25% Financial Times 390,121 435,478 -10.42% The Guardian 264,819 401,560 -34.05% The Independent 175,002 222,106 -21.21% The Times 448,463 726,349 -38.26% ***Total*** 9,128,397 12,471,239 –26.80% What are declining circulations doing to their political influence? On Andrew Neil’s “This Week” last Thursday…
January council by elections Votes Cast % Votes Cast Seats Won Change Conservatives 7297 44.05% 3 -2 Liberal Democrats 3774 22.78% 3 +1 Labour 3682 22.23% 2 +1 Green Party 739 4.46% 0 nc UKIP 546 3.30% 0 nc Independents 381 2.30% 0 nc BNP 52 0.31% 0 nc Others 93 0.56% 0 nc Are there any pointers to May’s big elections? And so starts a new year of local by-elections, and for the first time since July 2010, the…
PB Nov 14 2008 Is he the one to take on Palin – then Obama? In the week after Obama’s victory in November 2008 I placed a £50 bet at 200/1 with Ladbrokes against the then governor of Utah, Jon Huntsman, winning the 2012 White House race. It seemed a long shot but during those difficult days for the Republicans after their defeat it appeared to me that there was one potential contender who had what it would take to…