How serious is the threat to the blues? New data from Angus Reid shows that 6% of those who told the pollster in a post election survey in May 2010 that the voted Tory now saying they would support UKIP in an immediate general election. What’s significant about this is that the past vote data is not based on what they now say they did at the last election but on what they told the pollster in a survey carried…
Could it be much tighter than it appears? On Friday, in the immediate aftermath of Barnsley, I speculated about the possibility of the Lib Dems failing to hold their nerve, the coalition falling apart, and the chances of this leading to a general election this year. I rate the possibility of it happening at no more than 25%. But what would happen in such an election. Would Labour, in line with all the polling, the local council by elections and,…
How big a warning shot was Barnsley? One of the most striking aspects of the Barnsley Central result was the second place for UKIP. This was probably their best ever by-election result: it’s the first time they’ve finished as high as second and was their best-ever share of the poll, though their candidate in Norwich North in 2009 won over a thousand more votes on a higher turnout. In both by-elections this parliament, they’ve held their deposit. It would be…
If so, how does Clegg build a new one? The Barnsley Central by-election was not a resounding success for any of the main three parties. Labour regained most of the share they lost at the general election but still polled a smaller proportion than in 2005, the Conservatives lost half their share and were beaten by UKIP, and the Lib Dems lost their deposit, more than three-quarters of their share and finished sixth. That more than a quarter of the…
Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Methodology note Angus Reid/ 03/03/11 55 45 Repercentaged by pollster. Actual wording on the ballot, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via past vote and newspaper type. YouGov/No2AV 02/03/11 43 57 Repercentaged by PB. Bespoke wording, online, polling restricted to members of its polling panel. No turnout weighting. Politically weighted via party ID and newspaper type. Ipsos-MORI Reuters 20/02/11 55 45 Repercentaged by…
What are the chances of a 2011 general election? It’s been a pretty depressing couple of weeks for the junior coalition party. First there was Clegg’s unfortunate “am I in charge” quip, then he had to face a pretty robust DPMQs, the go-ahead to Rupert Murdoch and now the Barnsley Central result. Even AV, if the latest YouGov poll suggesting that support for NO is growing is correct, might not get through as easily as it looked a few weeks…
And UKIP wallop the Tories in the battle for second place The Barnsley Central by-election result has seen voters overwhelmingly reject both coalition parties with UKIP coming in second place in what is their best ever by-election performance. The Tories were just under a thousand votes behind in third place with the BNP and an Independent chalking up more votes than the Lib Dem. This is far worse than the worst fears of both the blues and yellows and I…
Will the turnout be higher in Wales or Barnsley? Will the LDs do worse than LAB’s 5th place & 3% in Henley? Could tonight see a breakthrough for UKIP? Lots of possible question though the elections are forgone conclusions. Have a good count. Mike Smithson