politicalbetting.com

The first event in this year’s White House Race takes place in just a fortnight when the Republican Party holds its caucuses in Iowa. This is very different from an ordinary primary because what happens is that Republican voters have to attend caucuses at the local Precinct centre in order to meet and cast their votes for the candidate they want to be selected This requires a far greater commitment from voters than just popping into a polling station and…

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Picuture: John William Waterhouse – The Crystal Ball – Wikipedia Public Domain OK PBers, here’s a bit of New Year fun.  Make your 2024 predictions against the following political, economic and sporting questions and win yourself a virtual silver trophy (it’s huge – about the same size as TSE’s modesty) and, more importantly, the kudos of being the Supreme PB Prediction Guru of 2024! TSE will be donating one hundred pounds worth of Amazon vouchers to the winner of this…

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It’s general election year and the plan on PB is to make the election betting the main story at the start of every week. As can be seen the money is going on the election actually taking place in Q4. I just wonder whether in the timing market that 2025 or later might be a good punt. Sunak might just want to hang on until the absolute end in the hope that something might turn up. Happy new year from…

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In today’s Sunday Times Tim Shipman reports that When Sunak decides to call the election is becoming an issue of personality and nerve. Labour expects him to call a May election, despite the huge poll deficit. The prime minister has told Richard Holden, the new party chairman, to make sure the Tory machine is ready for then. Holding the budget earlier than usual could be a sign of a government preparing for a general election on May 2, the same…

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A big question that will surely come before the US Supreme Court is whether Trump could be stopped from being on the WH2924 ballot because of what he did on January 6 2021 when there was an attempt to storm the Congress building in Washington which was overseeing the finalisation of WH2020 The big question is how much was Trump responsible for what happened and those against him are said to be building up a strong case that he was….

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My money’s on October 24th One of the big political stories and betting markets in the new year will be the date of the UK General Election. What adds to the analysis is that Sunak (or his sussessor] will become the first Conservative Prime Minister since the repeal of the fixed term permanent act to be the one who alone decides on what the date should be. This is a very personal decision and if he gets it wrong it…

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You can read The New York Times article here. TSE

Today marks the last day in office de facto of Amanda Spielman, who has been the longest serving  Chief Inspector of Schools since Ofsted’s foundation in 1992. She is to be replaced by Sir Martin Oliver, who has a formidable in tray to cope with. Let us consider the problems that face him:  On Spielman’s own admission Ofsted is currently completely discredited. It is difficult to argue with this assessment given that Ofsted has just been declared guilty of lying…

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