UPDATED What’ll be the impact of such an overwhelming defeat for YES? The final AV referendum polls are coming out and the latest, from ICM, has NO with an overwhelming 68-32 lead. If the split is anywhere near this tomorrow it will be a devastating blow to Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. There’s no consolation for them in the figures which represent a remarkable victory for David Cameron who has campaigned so effectively against the changes. Still to come are…
Lots of surveys have or are about to be published and I’ll try to get them out in a graphic form as soon as possible. The changes are on the last election in 2007. The list vote from YouGov is CON 13%: LAB 32%(+3): LD 7%(-4): SNP 35%(+4): Green 6%(+2) The list vote from YouGov is CON 19%:LAB 43%: LDEM 8%: Plaid 18%: UKIP 7% It’s projected that this will give an overall Labour majority. Mike Smithson
Surprisingly given the enormity of the event we got through the who half hour of PMQs without Osama’s killing coming up. Overall was a down-beat session with the house half empty ahead of tomorrow’s big elections. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron did pretty well during their exchanges and they came out about even. The big talking points has been on Nick Clegg. This is how the Telegraph’s Ben Brogan saw it:- “… But what jumped out watching it on…
Could YES really be ahead? The above message from Ben Page, CEO of Ipsos-MORI, was posted less than an hour ago and has even affected the betting markets. His suggestion that there is a poll about with a YES lead of one point is extraordinary giving yesterday’s numbers from ComRes showing a 66-34 split to NO. My understanding is that there are three polls to come later today – Angus Reid, ICM and YouGov. Could it be that Ben has…
Is he worth a 14/1 bet? I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive a disastrous series of results on Thursday and whether Huhne, Farron or AN Other would be the likely successor. I believe that Clegg has an extraordinary level of resilience and if he wants to carry on then he will do so – any observations I make here on the leadership have to be seen in that context. A key…
And the yellows move to their highest with ComRes for 6 months? With just a day’s campaigning left before Thursday crucial electoral test for all the parties the Lib Dem have moved to their highest ComRes share since last October while Labour drops four points to 37%. The change shown on the chart are with the last ComRes phone poll at the end of March. This isn’t to be confused with the firm’s online polling series. Following on from recent…
A new poll for STV by TNS-BMRB is just out with the SNP making more progress. The changes on the chart are with the last poll from the firm at the end of March. The full numbers taking into account both sections are:- Constituencies SNP 45 (+8) Lab 27 (-11) Con 15 (nc) LD 10 (+3) List SNP 38 (+3) Lab 25 (-10) Con 16 (+2) LD 9 (+1) Green 8 The fieldwork finished yesterday. These are dramatic changes and…
Is it the wards in their constituencies that matter? Clearly the focus is going to be on the Lib Dems when the results are announced on Thursday and Friday and the areas that matter most, I’d suggest are where there is a sitting MP. Almost certainly the MP incumbents will be producing aggregates of the votes cast in wards and devolved parliament seats within their constituency boundaries which could give a good indication about their current chances. For many it’s…