Will the “official” campaigns become even more important?

Will the “official” campaigns become even more important?

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Are voters waiting longer to decide? It is received political wisdom that most general elections are won or lost not in the three or four weeks between the dissolution of Parliament and the day of the election, but in the months and years beforehand. There is a lot of evidence to suggest that this is true. Even in 2010 where the performance of Nick Clegg in the first leadership debate shook-up the polls, betting markets and media commentary, it is…

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Why Huntsman’s candidacy matters

Why Huntsman’s candidacy matters

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Is he more important as a foil for Romney? Nothing would make me happier than for Our Genial Host to better his May 2005 50/1 bet on Barack Obama to become the next POTUS by seeing Jon Huntsman win him the 200/1 bet made in November 2008. I still don’t think it likely – the Republican Party has not yet served its ‘Time in the Wilderness’ and been brought back round to the hungry pragmatism that oppositions need to generate…

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Have you invested in Inverclyde yet?

Have you invested in Inverclyde yet?

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Ladbrokes Will this be a Glasgow East – or a Glenrothes? There’s just one day of campaigning left before the polls open in what’s becoming a hard-fought by-election in Inverclyde – on paper, an easy hold for Labour, but that was before May’s Holyrood election saw most of the Scottish electoral map repainted in SNP yellow, and it goes without saying that a poor result here will put even more pressure on Ed Miliband. Political big guns have been visiting…

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Will the public ever learn to love the Conservatives?

Will the public ever learn to love the Conservatives?

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Is detoxification harder when the party is in power? One of the lessons from the 2005-2010 Parliament was the need for the Conservative Party to go much further in tackling its image problem – “detoxifying” its brand – before it was able to develop (or at least articulate) a detailed programme of serious policy commitments. This was a strategic decision taken long before the economic collapse resulted in the parties necessarily having to rethink their policy goals. The evidence from…

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Can Cameron afford to take on middle class women?

Can Cameron afford to take on middle class women?

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Henry G on Tuesday There is nothing more terrifying in politics than middle class women. Men grumble, shout at the telly or newspaper, frequently swear and eventually forget what was bothering them. Middle class women are entirely different. They get organised, set up campaign groups, use the internet, issue press releases, harangue their MPs and challenge national politicians in front of the nation’s media without batting an eyelid. And they remember. As Sir Humphrey would point out, David Cameron and…

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Will the leaders be crucial again in 2015?

Will the leaders be crucial again in 2015?

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Ipsos MORI’s research over the past few general elections has shown that voters themselves placed more weight on the parties’ policies (46%, for example in 2005) than on the image of the leader (31%) or party image (23%) when deciding how to vote. 2010 was different. Even before the leadership debates, in February 2010 the public were giving equal weight to the importance of leaders and policies in their voting decision. The question looking ahead is whether the increasing prominence…

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Why aren’t the Greens doing better?

Why aren’t the Greens doing better?

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Shouldn’t they be benefiting more from the big boys’ unpopularity? This ought to be a good time for the minor parties. The government contains two of the three main parties but still consistently registers approval ratings in the minus twenties. Labour is led by someone in whom the public appears to have little confidence, yet is rated higher than his main shadow cabinet colleagues. The government is making cuts across large parts of the public sector but has increasingly appeared…

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