politicalbetting.com

Have the Tories shot UKIP’s fox? I’m told that there’ll be another Feltham by-election poll in the Sunday papers and we’ll see both pre-today and those responses that came after the dramatic overnight news from Brussels. One feature that will be interesting is the UKIP share. Will it be down at the 3% recorded in the massive Michael Ashcroft phone poll reported yesterday or might we see something higher. For Cameron’s robust approach in the negotiations will surely have ramifications…

Read More Read More

What’ll this do to Cameron’s position? The events in Brussels are fast moving but the shots above of a Sarkozy news conference at at 5am local time crystallise what appear to be the main points from the British perspective. No doubt there’ll be more developments during day. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

On Thursday, of course, we have Question Time on BBC1 followed by “This Week” which I reckon is the best political programme on TV. Also on Thursday we have the latest batch of council by-elections though there is only one this evening. This is your chance for a relaxed discussion. Welcome. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads Help keep PB going by making a donation to support the site’s costs

Which’ll do better in the wards being transferred? Lord Ashcroft has funded another big sample telephone poll – this time on next week’s Feltham by-election. The chart above shows the shares with comparisons on the general election result. It’s believed that he uses Populus without the firm’s “spiral of silence” adjustment. As expected Labour are heading for a victory with the two coalition partners down a bit. What few people have picked up is that there’s a fierce CON-LD battle…

Read More Read More

Mitt trailing badly in 3 of the first 4 states With the first elections in the 2012 White House race just over three and a half weeks away a very firm trend is being seen in the polls which are coming out several times a day. The latest overnight, from CNN-Time, are in the first four states to decide – those that will go through their primary process in January. In three Gingrich has double digit leads over Romney –…

Read More Read More

I’m finding the Romney-Gingrich battle for the Republican nomination absolutely engrossing because it looks as though it could be very tight. On the betting markets punters have yet to digest the full impact of the Gingrich surge and the Cain withdrawal. The ex-governor of Massachusetts, Romney, is trading at slightly longer than evens on Betfair. Everything could change on January 3rd with the Iowa caucuses. Whatever the race is going to be another intriguing one for political punters. Have a…

Read More Read More

Is the PM trying to please too many on the issue? There’s an old saying that if you can’t rise two horses at the same time then you shouldn’t be in the circus. I bet Dave on the EU wishes he only had to satisfy two factions. Instead he’s got the main leaders of the EU countries as they try to sort out their crisis while at the same time he’s trying to deal with the demands of his increasingly…

Read More Read More

Has Osborne got the bottle to ditch Dave’s pledge? Cast your mind back to the last of the TV debates just a week before the 2010 general election. Dave was put on the spot about pensioners perks which had been the subject of a Labour scare campaign. Would the Tories really scrap them? These include the winter fuel payment, free bus passes which 9 million of us have and free TV licences for all households where there’s somebody over the…

Read More Read More