Could Dave seal the first Tory working majority since 1987? One market sadly missing at the moment that on which punters can predict how many seats a party will win at the next election. Before 2010, odds could be had both on the exchanges and with bookies, and punters could also buy and sell seats on the now defunct Spreadfair. That’s a shame because there’s a great deal of uncertainty about what might happen in 2015 – or perhaps earlier…
… This is, of course, PB’s regular overnight open thread where all things political are discussed. Welcome to the cafe – have a good evening. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
Does the boss of ICM have a point? Alex Salmond announced on Wednesday that his “straightforward†question for the Scottish referendum was: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? This has now been scrutinized by academic and polling experts who are saying that it is leading and suggest that it is designed to get a particular outcome. According to the Telegraph the boss of ICM, Martin Boon, said the question was simple but added that his company…
Was the latest debate Gingrich’s last stand? These were the reactions of Nate Silver, the prominent US election and polling analyst, to the final TV debate in Florida ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. Grades (strategy/execution): Romney (A/A); Santorum (A-/A); Paul (B-/C); Gingrich (D-/B) — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012 Could envision an outcome in Florida like Romney 45, Gingrich 25, Santorum 20,Paul 10 — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) January 27, 2012 There’s little doubt that the big loser was last…
Thursdays are generally more interesting than usual. We have Question Time on BBC1, the council by-elections as well as, tonight, the final TV debate between the GOP candidates in Florida. We also have the final YouGov daily poll of the week. Share your thoughts here in the PB NightHawks Cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
Betfair Politics
From an 8% Florida lead to an 8% deficit in just three days The big news in the fight for next Tuesday’s GOP primary in Florida is that there’s been a huge turnaround in the polls. The most startling movement has come with Insider Advantage which on Sunday evening, in the aftermath of Newt’s stunning victory in South Carolina, had the ex-house speaker at Newt 34% to Mitt’s 26%. Since then there’s been a debate and and a huge negative…
Twitpic What do we think of this spoof? I think its fun and certainly gets over a lot of the emotional case on one side. Quite a few betting markets are being established but given the time-scale there’s nothing that I can recommend. I like to bet on something and see an outcome in weeks not years. Have a good night in the cafe. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH