Betfair Politics As I’ve explained before I’m not betting on outcomes in the GOP race but where I think the short-term movements in the betting will be. The idea is to try to back at a long price and then lay as sentiment changes and the price moves in. There are elections in three states tomorrow and if the polling is correct then Santorum could pick up two of them. If that happened he will, surely, edge the fading Gingrich…
BBC Could the YES vote be affected by possible downgrading? The front page of the Financial Times this morning is carrying a story by its Economics Editor, Chris Giles, about the sovereign debt rating that a new independent Scotland would receive. Giles writes that the paper has been told that an independent Scotland would not be able to count on receiving triple A status – something that could potentially lead to higher borrowing costs. His report goes on:- “Scotland could…
Why would Labour support a Tory call for an election? My previous article on Iain Martin’s Sunday Telegraph suggestion that there might be an early election has prompted him to respond on his blog with a post headed “Early elections and the fallacy of fixed parliaments”. But in neither his Telegraph article nor his blog does he have a convincing explanation as to how MPs would vote by the required two-thirds majority to by-pass the fixed term parliament legislation. For…
Telegraph Getting the new boundaries is Dave/George’s biggest priority Iain Martin has a provocative piece in the Sunday Telegraph in which he asserts that the coalition will break down next year and that Cameron should be preparing for an early election. He argues that the Fixed Parliament Act, setting the date for May 2015, can be circumvented by a commons vote with a two thirds majority. Nowhere in his piece does Martin refer to the boundary changes which, once agreed…
It looks as though it’ll be an eventful night It’s been caucus day in Nevada in the latest stage of the Republican party process to find the nominee to take the battle to Obama in November. All the signs are that the from-runner, Mitt Romney is going to have a big victory. Nevada borders on Utah and there’s a significant Mormon community. In 2008 it was estimated that a quarter of those taking party in the GOP’s caucuses were Mormons…
Poll has him beating Obama Rumours of Newt quitting There’s been a pile of activity in the White House race betting following reports that Newt Gingrich might quit after tonight’s Nevada caucuses and a new poll from Rasmussen that has Santorum doing better against Obama than Romney. The poll is the first one ever to have the ex-Pennsylvania Senator beating Obama and, more pointedly, doing better than the GOP front-runner, Mitt Romney. Gingrich has taken the unusual step of announcing…
Are this year’s most significant UK election on Nov 15? The usual highlight of the electoral year in the UK takes place on the first Thursday in May, which is when the local council elections and devolved parliamentary elections are scheduled, and when general elections have been planned for in recent years. This year, it’s a smaller bunch of English councils than in 2011, a full slate of Scottish and Welsh councils, and of course the London mayorality and Assembly…
Have a good evebning This is our regular open thread to take PBers through the night. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH