In spite of current problems this seems a good bet After all his tribulations since the budget William Hill now make George Osborne a 14/1 shot EVER to become Prime Minister. This seems a remarkable price given that the same bookmaker is offering a skinny 9/2 against George being next Tory leader. In the current circumstances it is hard to see a grateful Tory party turning to George once Dave has stood aside to spend more time with his DVD…
What’ll the “Economist cover” do to the referendum? Above is a version of what’s said to be the front cover of the latest Economist which hasn’t going down too well in nationalist circles overnight north of the border. As can be seen Scotland has been renamed “Skintland“; the country’s capital becomes “Edinborrow“; the Orkneys and Shetlands are dubbed the “Orkward” and “Shutlands” islands while the Lowlands region is termed “Loanlands“. Amongst the other re-namings are “Grumpians” for Grampians, “Aberdown” for…
Welcome again to the “cafe” This is the place for Britain’s best political conversation. @MikeSmithsonOGH
Betfair Politics Three weeks to ago and punters flee Ken According to those risking their money on the Betfair London mayor market Ken’s Chances are now just 21% based on the bets being traded this afternoon. This is almost a record low. At the same time Boris’s odds get tighter. It’s hard to argue with the market judgement. @MikeSmithsonOGH
Will 600+ gains underpin EdM’s leadership? We are in that silly time that we see every April when the parties try to tell us how badly they are going to do in the May locals while the academic specialists who monitor this closely set out what they think we should expect. A central figure in this is Professor Colin Rallings (The R of the famous Rallings & Thrasher partnership who do thing like work out the “official general election notionals”…
A special offer for PB party attendees A week tomorrow it’s the next PB gathering at the Dirty Dicks pub which is across the road from Liverpool Street station. I’ll be bringing with me some of the remaining copies of my 2007 book, The Political Punter, which is now out of print. It is a bit old bit but the basic principles stay the same. If anybody would like one please email me in advance. All I ask is that…
Is it worth betting on? The ever resourceful market creaters at Ladbrokes have come up with a range of different new London mayoral markets which seemed to have been designed solely to tempt PBers. One of them relates to the operation of the quasi-AV voting system which gives all electors what’s described as a supplementary vote. If no single candidate reaches the 50% mark on the first count then the second preferences of those ranked third and below are added…
Is this the most worrying trend for the coalition? PB regulars will know that the one economic tracker that I keep a close eye on is the Who is to blame for the cuts? which YouGov has been asking at least twice a month for nearly two years. We hear it time and time again – the most central piece of rhetoric that comes from coalition ministers is that drastic action had to be taken because “of the mess left…