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But they’re still nowhere near the Brown government at its worst. Lord Stewart Wood, one of Ed Miliband’s closest aides, is circulating the above government approval ratings and it’s hard to quibble that things are, to put it mildly, less than optimal for Cameron/Osborne. The latest from YouGov shows a negative of minus 43% – which is the worst they’ve been since the general election. In the chart above we see what happened in March. The budget and associated issues…

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Why I am betting on him at 18/1 to win Wisconsin Rick Santorum and George Galloway made Q1 2012 a very successful start to 2012 for my political betting. I had wins at up to 50/1 in Iowa, 100/1 in Colorado and, of course, 33/1 in last week’s Bradford by-election. My one loss was on Huntsman coming in second in New Hampshire. And so into Q2 and I’m taking a punt on Santorum in today’s Wisconsin primary. The polls suggest…

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Thanks again to Fat Steve for making the arrangements and to Marf for the invitation. I hope as many of you as possible will be able to join us. Can I emphasise that this is for lurkers as well as posters so don’t be put off from coming because you don’t usually post comments. If anybody wants to host an event for PBers elsewhere in the UK then please get in touch. I know that a follow-up to last year’s…

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Can we expect moves before the election? PaddyPower have a market on how many of Cameron/Miliband/Clegg will still be in post at the general election. The prices are:- 11/8 All three in place 4/5 Just two in place 11/2 One in place 20/1 None of them Only problem with the bet is that you’ll have to lock up your cash for, perhaps, three years. @MikeSmithsonOGH

Telegraph How vulnerable are Dave and George? The front page of tomorrow’s Telegraph is dominated by James Kirkup’s story above about the mode of Tory MPs following three difficult weeks. He writes: … speaking both publicly and privately, MPs have identified four areas where they say Mr Cameron should make changes: •The Downing Street machine should be overhauled amid widespread concern that Government policies are being poorly explained to voters, especially those in key marginal seats. • Mr Osborne is…

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EdM/NC/DC aggregate net negative ratings=121% Cameron’s personal YouGov ratings now worse than Gordon Brown’s before the 2010 election. Dave’s on -27%, Brown was on -19%. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 1, 2012 Ed Miliband is on -41% from YouGov – down just 4 on the week.Ed’s latest number 12 points better than his lowest level. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 1, 2012 Nick Clegg’s YouGov ratings down a net 7 on week to minus 53. That’s 3% up on his…

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The “old way” failed to deliver for Labour While I was at Tesco yesterday, I bumped into a local Labour politician who knows the ground there well, who was involved in Labour’s campaign and whose judgement I trust. I put it to him that I expected Labour to win by about 11,000. He said that two weeks ago, so did they. Before going too far into the minutiae, some context. Bradford West was frequently misdescribed in the media as a…

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But no voting intention numbers There’s a new ComRes poll in the Sindy and Sunday Mirror which the former is splashing on its front page. There are, apparently no voting intention questions and I assume that the firm will have followed its usual practice of not past vote weighting non-VI surveys. As can be expected the numbers don’t look good for the blue team and some appear on the Sindy’s front page above. The big change has been in perceptions…

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