Over the weekend there were a few stories briefing heavily against the Chancellor. The most biting one was the one in the Mail on Sunday, where an anonymous backbench Tory MP predicted Osborne could lose his job within a year. This was the most distressing observation (if you’re George Osborne or a Tory) He just doesn’t do the work. He has got away with it until now, but the Budget mistakes have enabled people to see the reality. Previous Chancellors…
But before David Cameron gets too excited, his ratings from the previous week remain unchanged, it was Ed Miliband’s ratings that slipped back, so Ed couldn’t maintain his lead for a fourth week. Cameron net rating minus 26 (nc from last week) Miliband net rating minus 28 (minus 5 from last week) Clegg net rating minus 55 (nc from last week) It will be interesting to see what the Ipsos-Mori ratings will show later on this month. But given recent…
The Sunday Times are reporting that Andrew Cooper, formerly of Populus and currently David Cameron’s pollster has warned the Tories they face embarrassment in the 2014 European Parliament elections, where they could be pushed into second place or worse by UKIP, unless they make a dramatic manifesto pledge to have an in/out referendum. A source said: “Cooper’s polling is clear. There’s a real public backlash against the EU and if we don’t do something, UKIP will get the benefit. There’s a…
This is the debut of a new polling methodology from ICM. Conservatives 31% Labour 39% Lib Dems 16% Unlike conventional polls, which ask voters which party they would choose in a general election, the Wisdom Index asks them to predict the result of such a contest. This poll was conducted online, unlike other ICM polls which are conducted by phone. Martin Boon of ICM posted on the previous thread, here is an excerpt. The new technique is based on…
There is an interesting snippet emerging from Martin Boon of ICM. “ICM\Sunday Telegraph to launch brand new method of predicting elections using public opinion” Whilst Patrick Hennessey of the Sunday Telegraph tweeted “New direction in opinion polling pioneered by SunTel/ICM tomorrow…watch this space later on” This will be out this evening. I’m very intrigued by this. Hopefully there will be a VI poll as well. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.
David Herdson on a cabinet reshuffle. If so, who goes, stays, moves and arrives? One feature of the coalition government has been how stable ministerial appointments have been. The great majority of those appointed in 2010 are not only still in office but still in the same office. When ministers have left the government, the ensuing reshuffles have been very vertical affairs with little movement within the same rank. One major reason for this is that it’s far harder to…
Welcome once again to PB’s overnight open thread in the relaxing atmosphere of the PB NightHawks cafe.