Kellner says Tory victory the likeliest outcome

Kellner says Tory victory the likeliest outcome

Comments 0 Comment

Peter Kellner says “I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015…” bit.ly/JuGAv2 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012 Interesting article on the latest ratings changes for Ed Miliband and David Cameron on the YouGov site by Peter Kellner. Looking back he notes:- “…In the months leading up to the 1970 election, Wilson’s ratings improved. By election day he was much better liked than Heath. Yet Heath won: Wilson’s mid-term travails had been too profound, and…

Read More Read More

Caroline quits the leadership to help the Greens cash in

Caroline quits the leadership to help the Greens cash in

Comments 0 Comment

Will they capitalise most on the Lib Dem collapse? While UKIP continues to get most attention in the “others” category the organisation in that segment that has been making real electoral progress is Caroline Lucas’s Green Party. Unlike the disorganised purples who failed even to get the UKIP party name onto the ballot papers in London the Greens had a very good May 3rd. Their net councillor total went up by 11 and of course, their candidate in the London…

Read More Read More

Are the Tories trailing public opinion on gay marriage?

Are the Tories trailing public opinion on gay marriage?

Comments 0 Comment

Should the party ignore the activist base? The subject of gay marriage has come to the fore in both the US and in the UK, In the former last week electors in North Carolina voted to amend the state constitution to ban it. A day later Barack Obama said that he was in favour. Here in the UK it’s been a issue particularly within the Tory party and this morning Philip Hammond was on the Marr show expressing his reservations….

Read More Read More

Miliband takes a 6pc net lead in YouGov’s leader ratings

Miliband takes a 6pc net lead in YouGov’s leader ratings

Comments 0 Comment

Ed Miliband overtakes Cameron in YouGov’s leader ratings. He’s on 32% WELL/55% BADLY to Cameron’s 32%/61%. So Ed’s net is -23% to Dave’s -29 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012 LATEST YouGov voting – 31/43/10 with UKIP on 8. Labour maintaining a solid double digit lead.. The LDs up from their low of 7% on Thu to 10 — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012 EdM’s net YouGov leader ratings lead of 6% over Dave his best ever position…

Read More Read More

Spain backed to quit the Eurozone

Spain backed to quit the Eurozone

Comments 0 Comment

Will the Euro still exist at the end of 2015? William Hill have reopened their market on which will be the first country to quit the Eurozone – and although Greece remain hot favourites at 1/4, Spain have been slashed from 12/1 to 7/1 third favourite. ‘We suspended the market earlier in the week when punters only wanted to back Greece but with the financial crisis escalating in Spain and the possibility of another Greek election we have decided to…

Read More Read More

Will Hunt have to go?

Will Hunt have to go?

Comments 0 Comment

Is he set to become the 4th cabinet casualty? Rebekah Brooks’ testimony to the Leveson enquiry didn’t produce a smoking gun but will not have been at all comfortable listening for Jeremy Hunt. In particular, the e-mail from Hunt’s advisor looks at best like a private office out of control and gives the suggestion of indirect but improper ministerial contact with News International. However, it is just suggestion rather than established fact and as such we’re into the good old…

Read More Read More

Welcome again to the PB NightHawks cafe

Welcome again to the PB NightHawks cafe

Comments 0 Comment

Holiday arrangements starting a week on Monday I’ve going to be away Andalucia for two and half weeks and won’t be taking my lap-top though I will still have my tablet and phone. Unlike previous holidays there will be no stand-in editor. We have found that it is just too big a task for someone who also has to work. The site will still operate driven mostly by continuation threads and things that have been set up in advance. @MikeSmithsonOGH…

Read More Read More

Rebekah Brooks before Leveson: Some reactions LOL

Rebekah Brooks before Leveson: Some reactions LOL

Comments 0 Comment

We now make it 5/6 that David Cameron says ‘lol’ at least once during PMQs this year #LOLgate #camerontexts — Ladbrokes (@LadbrokesNews) May 11, 2012 You wait till the Prime Minister finds out what MILF means…. — Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) May 11, 2012 The Moggster’s verdict re LOL. Jacob Rees-Mogg: “I would have thought he’d sign off yours sincerely, but never mind.” bit.ly/JERI9o — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 11, 2012 #leveson Not too charmed by RB’s feisty, winning ways, we…

Read More Read More