We are going to have to wait The monthly telephone poll by ICM for the Guardian is out this evening but so far the paper has not reported the voting intention figures. It’s putting emphasis on views of global warming which it notes have hardly changed since ICM posed a near-identical question just ahead of the Copenhagen climate conference of 2009. 57% accept that man made global warning is happening. In May the firm had the Tories in their best…
Is this why seniors are being favoured over the young? If the polls are to be believed the age segment which has shifted most to UKIP in recent months has been the oldies. Most days the News International survey by YouGov shows them supporting Farage’s party more than any other sector of the electorate – a trend that’s seen from just about all the pollsters. The oldies are the group which seems to have turned most against Dave in the…
How changing the question added 16 points to NO’s lead There’s new polling out from TNS-BMRB into the form of wording for the Scottish Independence referendum due to take place in October 2014. The firm effectively carried out four separate polls of Scottish voters putting different wording to each. The SNP’s proposed question received the highest level of agreement with independence: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Yes 40% No 60% Exchanging the word ‘agree’ for…
The tension continues
Does he do better when he’s out of the country? Cameron’s YouGov approval ratings move to best since March.. Now down to minus 18%. In May was -31%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 Miliband’s YouGov approval ratings drop 2 to -27%. Last week he was = to Dave — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 Clegg’s YouGov approval ratings improve by 2 to minus 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 24, 2012 YouGov – Tories take 7% lead…
RealClearPolitics It’s a mugs game – DON’T BET With the Republican nomination settled and the White House election not taking place until November one of the big stories at the moment is who will Romney pick as his running mate. Betting’s been quite lively with one new name coming into the frame after another. It all seems so logical – Mitt, it is said, might have problems with Hispanic voters hence the “obvious” choice becomes Mario Rubio. Another day and…
What’s your view – will they stick it out? How long has the coalition got left? 6 months 12 months 18 months 24 months 30 months It will survive until the May 2015 election Surprisingly I couldn’t find a betting market. Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
What are the electoral lessons to be learned? The vote for London mayor is unusual in many ways, one of which is that because of the electronic counting system, all second preferences are identified and recorded. Last week, the full second preference breakdown for May’s vote was released, and is well worth analysing. Interestingly, most people who voted for Boris or Ken also cast a second preference despite the almost certain knowledge that their first choice would be in the…