Marf on the Diamond Jubilee
YouGov leader ratings: Ed behind again
But before David Cameron gets too excited, his ratings from the previous week remain unchanged, it was Ed Miliband’s ratings that slipped back, so Ed couldn’t maintain his lead for a fourth week. Cameron net rating minus 26 (nc from last week) Miliband net rating minus 28 (minus 5 from last week) Clegg net rating minus 55 (nc from last week) It will be interesting to see what the Ipsos-Mori ratings will show later on this month. But given recent…
Does Dave have to offer a referendum before Ed does?
The Sunday Times are reporting that Andrew Cooper, formerly of Populus and currently David Cameron’s pollster has warned the Tories they face embarrassment in the 2014 European Parliament elections, where they could be pushed into second place or worse by UKIP, unless they make a dramatic manifesto pledge to have an in/out referendum. A source said: “Cooper’s polling is clear. There’s a real public backlash against the EU and if we don’t do something, UKIP will get the benefit. There’s a…
The Debut ICM Wisdom Index
This is the debut of a new polling methodology from ICM. Conservatives 31% Labour 39% Lib Dems 16% Unlike conventional polls, which ask voters which party they would choose in a general election, the Wisdom Index asks them to predict the result of such a contest. This poll was conducted online, unlike other ICM polls which are conducted by phone. Martin Boon of ICM posted on the previous thread, here is an excerpt. The new technique is based on…
Continuation thread and note on ICM
There is an interesting snippet emerging from Martin Boon of ICM. “ICM\Sunday Telegraph to launch brand new method of predicting elections using public opinion” Whilst Patrick Hennessey of the Sunday Telegraph tweeted “New direction in opinion polling pioneered by SunTel/ICM tomorrow…watch this space later on” This will be out this evening. I’m very intrigued by this. Hopefully there will be a VI poll as well. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.
Should Cameron reshuffle this Summer?
David Herdson on a cabinet reshuffle. If so, who goes, stays, moves and arrives? One feature of the coalition government has been how stable ministerial appointments have been. The great majority of those appointed in 2010 are not only still in office but still in the same office. When ministers have left the government, the ensuing reshuffles have been very vertical affairs with little movement within the same rank. One major reason for this is that it’s far harder to…
Welcome to PB NightHawks
Welcome once again to PB’s overnight open thread in the relaxing atmosphere of the PB NightHawks cafe.
Has Hunt done enough to survive?
After his performance at the Leveson inquiry, did he do enough to save his position? Labour are planning to hold a commons vote on whether Hunt should be referred for a breach of the Ministerial code, a lot will depends on how the Lib Dems vote on this. The Liberal Democrats said it was “a matter for the prime minister alone to decide how to handle issues of discipline concerning Conservative ministers”. William Hill have a market up on Jeremy Hunt to…