Mitt’s Veep decision could come next week

Mitt’s Veep decision could come next week

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Would this deflect the Bain attacks? The hottest political betting market at the moment has nothing to with the Tory rebellion on Lords reform last night – rather the focus of punters is on who Mitt Romney will choose as his running mate for November’s presidential election. Normally we would not have expected an announcement much before the party convention at the end of August but the signs are that this might be earlier. Romney, who became a national figure…

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Will Osborne black-ball a promotion for Andrea?

Will Osborne black-ball a promotion for Andrea?

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Was it wise to say George should apologise to Balls? One of the 2010 intake of Tory MPs who has been making her mark is Andrea Leadsom who came to the commons after a career in finance. She’s been talked about very highly and must, surely, be one of those who can reasonably expect preferment in Dave’s first re-shuffle. She has played quite a big role in the Treasury select committee discussion on the LIBOR scandal where she’s been perhaps…

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If the rebellion succeeds the LDs get 70 new Life Peers

If the rebellion succeeds the LDs get 70 new Life Peers

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Will the yellows do better if the bill goes down? So here we are here. The closing session of debate at Westminster on Lords reform at which the ostensible issue is not the the issue. Both the reds and large numbers of the blues are trying to block making the upper house democratic not by addressing the issue itself but throwing a spanner into the works on how the commons should deal with it. Yet what very few people have…

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Can the coalition survive a Lords reform defeat?

Can the coalition survive a Lords reform defeat?

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Where will things stand after tonight? The time-table motion on the Lords reform bill is taking on a significance way beyond the procedural measures for the passage of the bill for which it is ostensibly about. Without that in place the measure, backed I’m told by 17 Tory cabinet ministers, will have real trouble progressing through the commons and the chances of it being enacted will look even slimmer. The bigger question will be what it does to the coalition….

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Why I’m not following politics at the moment

Why I’m not following politics at the moment

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The greatest day in British cycling ever Forgive me if my eye has been off the ball in the world of politics at the moment. The big, indeed overwhelming, sporting passion of my life has for nearly half a century been cycling and the UK is going through an extraordinary period. The general public became aware of it for the first time with the amazing performances, under the eye of David Brailsford, of the British cycling squad at the Beijing…

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The money now goes on a government defeat

The money now goes on a government defeat

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There’s been a big swing-round at Ladbrokes on the outcome of the crucial time-table motion on the Lords reform bill. This morning it looked, from the betting, that the government would win and it was an odds-on bet. Now that’s all changed and Ladbrokes are offering just 4/6 that ministers will be defeated. You can get 11/10 that the time-table motion will survive. The reform proposals, which are reported to have had the backing of 17 Conservative ministers in cabinet,…

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Lords Reform: The money goes on the Government avoiding defeat

Lords Reform: The money goes on the Government avoiding defeat

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Is this a case where the betting is predictive? The government is odds-on to avoid defeat in the Commons on the Lords’ timetable motion according to Ladbrokes. The book opened at an entirely level 5/6 each of two but all the money so far is against the defeat, forcing the price into 4/5. Those who think the government will lose can take bigger odds of evens. It also remains odds-on at 1/2 that no direct elections for the House of…

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