What would be the outcome of an IN-OUT EU referendum?
If there was an IN-OUT EU referendum what are the chances that Britain would vote to leave? 81-100% 65-80% 50-64% 35-49% 20-34% 0-19%
Are we getting closer to an EU referendum?
If so what would be the outcome? According to the BBC’s Nick Robinson David Cameron is set to address Tory back-bench concerns over the EU with a major speech in the next couple of month on Britain’s relationship with Brussels. Under the heading “David Cameron considers a referendum on Europe” Robinson writes:- “..The pressures on the prime minister are now much greater than they were before the 2010 election – UKIP is building support and many Westminster insiders believe they…
Ashdown’s appointment makes it more certain that Clegg will survive
Dave is now the most vulnerable party leader? Probably the most significant aspect of Clegg’s conference speech was the appointment of ex-leader, Paddy Ashdown as head of the party’s 2015 general election campaign. This has been discussed in terms of his ability to reach Labour tactical voters who are central to the party holding onto those seats where the Tories are in second place. He’s also good at motivating activists. Ashdown, as we saw with his relations with Blair, was…
And as we look forward to the Conservative conference….
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Tory inactivity on the ground is helping the Lib Dems and Nick Clegg
Striking how many senior LibDems who have the Tories 2nd in their seats say they are not yet seeing any Tory challenge to them on the ground — James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) September 25, 2012 Why’ve the blues taken their foot off the gas? Whenever anybody has talked about leadership challenges at the Brighton LD conference this week the message that you hear is that this would only happen once incumbent MPs start to panic. Given that in the lion’s share…
Dick Morris says Romney by 4 points
Should we listen to the ex-Clinton man who advised UKIP? Since the party conventions the polling and the betting in the White House race has all been one way – to Barack Obama. The narrative is firm – the president is going to be re-elected and Mitt Romney’s gaffe-prone campaign will fail. There are few voices expressing any other point of view but I thought that this Fox News interview with Dick Morris was worth looking at. He makes the…
Happy 2nd anniversary Mr. Miliband
Two years on and he’s the most secure of the three September 25th 2010 is a date I remember fondly. I’d made a big call a couple of days earlier that Ed was going to beat his brother Dave in the leadership contest and so it happened – albeit by the tightest of margins. I had EdM bets ranging downwards from 33/1 and my winnings on that day were enough to buy a brand new car. For much of the…
The Michael Ashcroft polling that should cheer the Lib Dems up
ConHome Sept 26 2011 Although it’s a year old the findings are still valid This post has been put up following a promise I made at the Times/Populus Lib Dem conference fringe meeting yesterday. It relates to Michael Ashcroft polling from September 2011 which was carried out in Tory seats that were vulnerable to Labour and the Lib Dems. There’s has been nothing like it before or since and I’d contend that the general thrust is still valid. The Lib…