YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

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If YouGov’s finding on likely turnout in Thursday’s PCC election is correct then taking the 5/6 at 20%+ is a good bet twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 Should we be a bit cautious about the findings? Ladbrokes have adjusted their PCC elections turnout bet following the YouGov poll at the weekend that had 28% in the areas where elections will be held saying they were 10/10 certain to vote. On the face of it this makes the…

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For entrants to the PB-William Hill White House competition the waiting goes on. It’ll be a few days before we get the final figures

For entrants to the PB-William Hill White House competition the waiting goes on. It’ll be a few days before we get the final figures

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Latest popular vote figures from #WH2012 see here. Obama lead now 2.7%. Still several million votes to come twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012 @weslangley The £1000 PB/William Hill WH2012 comp will be settled when we havefinal figs. Ohio doesn’t declare fully until Nov 17 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012 @joshdixontweets A number of states accept postal absentee ballots for several days after election provided they are post-marked Nov 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12,…

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The Tories are seeking to bribe several smaller parties to secure their 20 seat boundary bonus

The Tories are seeking to bribe several smaller parties to secure their 20 seat boundary bonus

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The Tories launch a multi-party effort to save their 20 seat boundary bonus, www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53646 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012 This could decide the general election Judging from press reports and other initiatives over the weekend the Tories have launched a multi-pronged effort to try to secure the new parliamentary seat boundaries which give them a 20 seat bonus and make the possibility of a majority that bit more possible. The first focus has been on their coalition…

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Thursday’s battle for the city of Bristol could be tight – is there money to be made?

Thursday’s battle for the city of Bristol could be tight – is there money to be made?

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LAB hot odds-on favourites in the biggest mayoral battle outside London. See latest Bristol odds. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2012 Shadsy from Ladbrokes assesses the chances Thursday sees the vote for the first directly elected Mayor of Bristol. Ladbrokes have had a book open on this since the city voted to create the post earlier in the year and here’s our guide to the runners, riders and market moves so far 1/2 Marvin Rees (Lab) 4/1…

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The Police Commissioner elections should add to LAB victories across the board on Thursday

The Police Commissioner elections should add to LAB victories across the board on Thursday

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LAB’s heading for huge wins in Thursday’s 3 by-election & the votes for the mayor of Bristol & 41 Police Commisioners twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012 If it goes the way of national polling then then 26 of the 41 of the new commissioners will be Labour Thursday is a very big election day across England and Wales with the exception of London. As well as the Corby, Manchester Central and Cardiff S by-elections, there’s biggest mayoral…

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According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

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Nate Silver: nyti.ms/Z6kbM7 The Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012 Which did best – which did worst? Nate Silver of the New York Times has produced the above polling accuracy table. He’s based it on surveys in the final three weeks rather than just the closing poll. Nate’s reasoning is that there’s a tendency, which we see in the UK as well, for pollsters to herd round…

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