LAB’s heading for huge wins in Thursday’s 3 by-election & the votes for the mayor of Bristol & 41 Police Commisioners twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012

If it goes the way of national polling then then 26 of the 41 of the new commissioners will be Labour

Thursday is a very big election day across England and Wales with the exception of London.

As well as the Corby, Manchester Central and Cardiff S by-elections, there’s biggest mayoral election outside London in Bristol.

On top of that there are the first elections for the 41 new Police and Crime Commissioner posts.

Thanks to some excellent work by Andrea we have aggregated general election data from each of the policy authority areas where there will be voting. The following are some predictions based on current national polling.

LAB “Certainties”

Cleveland: LAB 40.1 CON 27.81 LD 21.5
Durham: LAB 45  LD 24 CON 21
Greater Manchester: LAB 41 CON 27 LD 23
Gwent: LAB 41 CON 24 LD 17
Merseyside: LAB 52 CON 21 LD 20
Northumbria: LAB 45 LD 24 CON 22
South Wales: LAB 41 CON 22 LD 21
South Yorkshire: LAB 43 LD 23 CON 20
Nottinghamshire: LAB 37 CON 36 LD 19
West Midlands: LAB 37 CON 32 LD 19
North Wales: LAB 33 CON 30 LD 15 Plaid 15 (no LD and Plaid)
West Yorkshire: LAB 37 CON 32 LD 20

LAB on CON>LAB win swings of upto 5%

Derbyshire: CON 36 LAB 34 LD 22
Cheshire: CON 40.84 LAB32.53 LD 21.21
Cumbria: CON 39.5 LAB 30.82 LD 24.35
Dyfed-Powys: CON 30 LD 26 LAB 22 Plaid
Humberside: CON 37 LAB 31 LD 22
Lancashire: CON 38 LAB 35 LD 18

LAB wins on CON>LAB swing of 5-7.5%

Staffordshire: CON 41 LAB 31 LD 18
Bedfordshire: CON 44.91 LAB 27.28 LD 20.4
Leicestershire: CON 41 LAB 28 LD 22
Warwickshire: CON45 LAB 27 LD 20

Probably CON wins

Cambridgeshire: CON 45.3 LD 29.19 LAB 16.31
Dorset: CON 48 LD 32 LAB 12
Essex: CON 49 LD 21 LAB 19
Gloucestershire: CON 45 LD 27 LAB 21
Hampshire: CON 49 LD 30 LAB 14
Herefordshire: CON 50 LD 24 LAB 19
Kent: CON 50, LAB 21, LD 21
Lincolnshire: CON 46 LD 21 LAB 20
Norfolk: CON 43 LD 27 LAB 18
North Yorkshire: CON 46 LD 27 LAB 19
Northamptonshire: CON 48 LAB 26 LD 19
Suffolk: CON 46 LD 24 LAB 21
Surrey: CON 55 LD 28 LAB 9
Sussex: CON 46 LD 27 LAB 16
Thames Valley: CON 48 LD 25 LAB 17

The main betting has been on turnout.

Mike Smithson

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