On the eve of Leveson here’s Marf’s take
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
Leveson – are we heading for statutory independent press regulator?
Revised chart showing support in YouGov poll for statutory press regulation broken down by newspapers read. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2012 The report’s out at 1pm tomorrow Thursday looks set to be a big political day with three Westminster by-elections and the publication of the Leveson report. Dave got his copy this morning and no doubt they’ll be working hard on his response planned for tomorrow afternoon. One possible issue is that the PM and DPM could…
Obama’s winning popular vote margin is edging upwards by the day and now stands at 3.45 percent
Three weeks on from election day the Romney total gets closer to the 47% mark. docs.google.com/spreadsheet/cc… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2012 And there are several million votes still to be counted Thanks to PB’s AndyJS for the great work he’s doing tracking the final total in the 2012 White House race. His spreadsheet is being updated several times as day and has become just about the most authoritative source for the outcome. Andy is also doing the…
The polling suggests that Europe is being much-overstated as a factor behind the UKIP surge
According to YouGov post-2010 general election polling just 41% of UKIP voters cited Europe as a factor. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Thanks to Anthony Wells of YouGov for linking to this polling taken after the 2010 general election which sought, amongst other things, to work out why people had voted the way they did. The responses from UKIP voters when asked to name what were the three key issues for them are showing in…
Unlike Bradford West there’s nothing in the betting to suggest anything but LAB holds in Thursday’s 3 by-elections
Betfair data shows that there’s hardly a rush of money going on parties other than LAB in Rotherham. £61 backing Respect & £62 UKIP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Betfair data also show that in Croydon N the total of bets bcking Respect totals just £34 with £0 going on UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 On the Middlesbrough Betfair market nobody has backed anycandidate other than LAB. Last price traded 1/100. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…
The US authorities move in to stop the Irish betting exchange Intrade. US customers are ordered to close their accounts
US authorities take action against Intrade. All US punters ordered to close accounts. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54041 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Where now for the Dublin-based bookie? As I’ve often remarked on PB I’ve found it odd that while Betfair has for years taken large measures to stop any US-based customers from accessing its site and trading on its market the Dublin firm, Intrade, has apparently operated with impunity. During the recent White House race the firm became the…
LAB leads drops 4 points in latest ComRes phone poll
LAB lead down from 11 to 7 in tonight’s Indy/ComRes phone poll. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54034 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2012 The ComRes phone poll, one of just four we get each month using this methodology, is just out and, as can be seen, the LAB lead of 11% or a month ago becomes 7% with the Tories moving up 2 and Labour moving down 2. Most of the fieldwork took place while the Rotherham fostering case was making the…
What about the David Cameron description UKIP as being a party mostly of “fruit-cakes, nutters and closet racists” ?
Henry G Manson makes the case David Cameron’s quote about UKIP has been bandied around the press this weekend amid speculation he may distance himself from it. He was right not to do so. Whatever the politics or prejudices of UKIP supporters there are things we do know about them in the public domain. They’re not something that any mainstream political party should have anything to do with. There also those in UKIP rejected by the Conservatives because they no…