ICM data shows that the 65+ group, the one most likely to vote, is the one most opposed to gay marriage

ICM data shows that the 65+ group, the one most likely to vote, is the one most opposed to gay marriage

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ICM figures showing how support for gay marriage drops sharply with age. 65+the fastest growing segment for UKIP. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2013 Does this have political impications? The above is based on data from last week’s ICM poll and shows what could be a political challenge – paricuarly for the Tories. For it’s the blue team which does better amongst the over 65s and it is this age group, particularly the men, who have most switched…

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For the record last night on Twitter I entered into a general election wager with the Telegraph’s Blairite blogger Dan Hodges

For the record last night on Twitter I entered into a general election wager with the Telegraph’s Blairite blogger Dan Hodges

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@msmithsonpbYep. £50. — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013 @msmithsonpbDeal. — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013 @guidofawkesNo, you’ve had quite enough money off me… — Dan Hodges (@DPJHodges) January 2, 2013

LAB could win an overall majority with not much more than a third of the national vote

LAB could win an overall majority with not much more than a third of the national vote

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Given the way that the electoral system works in LAB’s favour then any maj price longer than evens looks like value twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2013 Why I’m now betting on a LAB majority AndyJS, who’s done a splendid job on the US election, has produced an online spread-sheet showing Labour’s target seats for the election. It’s presented well with a lot of good data and links and I’ve little doubt that we’ll be referring to it…

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Two months after the election the #WH2012 votes are finally counted and we can announce the PB-William Hill winners

Two months after the election the #WH2012 votes are finally counted and we can announce the PB-William Hill winners

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Congratulations to Cityunslicker who takes the top slot When the William Hill/Politicalbetting White House race prediction competition was announced in September nobody could have envisaged that we would have to wait for two months after the election before getting a final outcome. Entrants were asked simply to predict, down to two decimal points, who the winning candidate would be and the size of the winning margin. On the night it looked as though an Obama popular vote lead of about…

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CON in lead in local by-elections in 2012 with Ukip on 6.13 percent

CON in lead in local by-elections in 2012 with Ukip on 6.13 percent

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Aggregate vote shares from all 198 local by-elections in 2012 show: CON 33.74: LAB 29.22: LD 19.15: UKIP 6.13 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 1, 2013 Thanks to Harry Hayfield for the data. It is important to note that not all parties contest each local council by election and that they do not, of themelves, constitute a representative sample of voters. By-elections take place whenever there is a need to replace a sitting councillor and this means that aggregates,…

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How well did YOU do predicting what would happen in 2012?

How well did YOU do predicting what would happen in 2012?

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How PBers got 2012 right and wrong The PB 2012 Prediction Competition Results It goes without saying that 2012 was an extraordinarily busy year – not only with the Olympics and the Jubilee, but politically it was pretty crammed too. The US election dominated the year, but there were plenty of elections elsewhere, with France, Russia, Mexico, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea – and two in Greece. The UK weighed in with the London Mayor contest, the locals, and no…

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The 10 “Wild moments” of the 2012 White House campaign

The 10 “Wild moments” of the 2012 White House campaign

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A great recap of the political betting story of the year To think that exactly a year ago we were waiting for the Iowa caucuses and the massive shock of Rik Santorum’s unexpected which for many of us led to big profits. I love White House races and this one was superb seeing my longest odds winning bet ever, a lay of Romney at 1/100 in one of the early caucuses. My big regret is that I didn’t risk more…

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The size of the majority in 2015.

The size of the majority in 2015.

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Paddy Power have a market up on the size of the majority in 2015. The current polling, and the boundary changes not happening, it seems difficult to envisage a Tory majority of any kind in the present circumstances. At the time of writing, the odds were, No Overall Majority 7/4 Conservative Majority 1 to 20 7/1 Conservative Majority 21 to 40 9/1 Conservative Majority 41 to 60 20/1 Conservative Majority Over 60 40/1 Labour Majority 1 to 20 15/2 Labour Majority…

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