Next weekend’s Italian Election by Andrea Parma

Next weekend’s Italian Election by Andrea Parma

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Can Silvio prevent a left majority? Italy is set to hold parliamentary elections on February 24-25th. In 2008 Silvio Berlusconi comfortably won, leading the centre-left coalition of Walter Veltroni by around 9%. As is often the case on the Italian political scene, his government couldn’t finish its 5 year term and Mario Monti took over as a “technocrat” PM in late 2011. 47 lists or coalitions of lists are contesting this election but just five coalitions are likely to poll…

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With the first #Eastleigh ballots starting to be cast I am betting that Diane James of Ukip will beat Labour

With the first #Eastleigh ballots starting to be cast I am betting that Diane James of Ukip will beat Labour

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Diane James – the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2013 Many of those registered to vote by post received their ballot packs yesterday and if past elections are anything to go by then a sizeable proportion will have been completed and posted them back by tomorrow morning. The election has already started. My reading is that the Labour vote will be squeezed by the sheer intensity of the LD campaign. The reason the yellows…

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After the ComRes online poll with changed methodology the YouGov Sunday Times survey paints a very different picture

After the ComRes online poll with changed methodology the YouGov Sunday Times survey paints a very different picture

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Today’s YouGov poll for the S Times paints a very different picture of opinion than last night’s ComRes online. See – twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2013 Which is right YouGov or ComRes online revised? ComRes in its online form only started polling after GE2010 and as such is untested at a general election. Last night we saw the latest for the IoS and Sunday Mirror with extraordinary numbers showing a quarter of the sample saying they were…

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ComRes online LAB lead remains at 5 percent

ComRes online LAB lead remains at 5 percent

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LAB lead stays at 5% in new ComRes online poll for Indy/S Mirror. New methodology gives big boost to others twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2013 Economy I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 27% (+2) Disagree 51% (-4) Net agree -24% (+6) I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 20% (-1) Disagree 55% (+3) Net agree -35% (-4) Change…

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Will Welsh Secretary David Jones be the next to go?

Will Welsh Secretary David Jones be the next to go?

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David Jones, Welsh Secretary at centre of gay marriage row, now 6/1 FAV for next Cabinet exit bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2013 David Herdson assesses his survival chances The Secretaries of State for Wales is amongst the most invisible of cabinet ministers. Partly that’s because the London media never gives as much attention to events outside the capital as within it but mainly it’s because he doesn’t have much of a job to do with the…

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The five political lessons from Ed Miliband and the 10p tax

The five political lessons from Ed Miliband and the 10p tax

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twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2013 Henry G Manson on the LAB leader’s big speech Aside from the policy itself, I take five political points from the Labour leader’s announcement that his party would return the 10p tax rate and fund it through a ‘mansion tax’. 1) Ed Miliband really isn’t afraid to distance himself from former boss Gordon Brown. This policy stance reminds of one of Brown’s biggest political mistakes and the Labour leader defines himself against…

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Welcome back Marf – although this is a bit hard to swallow!

Welcome back Marf – although this is a bit hard to swallow!

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Thanks to all those who contributed to the appeal Marf has been able to upgrade her technical infrastructure and she is now back producing cartoons for us. We just came in under or target of £1,500 without which this would not have been possible. Anyway – how can we have a scandal like the horse-meat one without Marf. Great to have you back. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB If you haven’t donated yet…

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