The Eastleigh moves are all in line with what voters predicted would happen

The Eastleigh moves are all in line with what voters predicted would happen

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What different segments of #Eastleigh voters predicted would happen at the start of the campaign. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2013 Another victory for “Wisdom of Crowds” polling? The above finding asking Eastleigh voters what they thought would happen comes from the Lord Ashcroft by election poll taken a fortnight ago immediately after Chris Huhne announced that he was going. As can be seen from the chart there was a widespread view from all segments of…

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The big unknown – the level of Ukip tactical swtching to the Tories to stop the Lib Dems

The big unknown – the level of Ukip tactical swtching to the Tories to stop the Lib Dems

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Maria Hutchings with Grant Shapps/Michael Green twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2013 Eastleigh could be a guide to GE2015 The Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh poll carried out before any candidates had been selected found that just 50% of those who’d voted CON at GE2010 said that they would do so again at the by-election. The biggest segment of the remainder, representing 21% of 2010 CON voters were those saying don’t know. A total of 9% said they’d switch to…

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General Election 2010: the day the Tories failed to win their 12th easiest target – Eastleigh

General Election 2010: the day the Tories failed to win their 12th easiest target – Eastleigh

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#Eastleigh #GE2010 result showing comparison on 2005. Note the huge squeeze on the LAB vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2013 How a huge LAB>LD tactical switch thwarted CON hopes On May 6th 2010 the Tories made an overall total 100 gains yet still, as we all know, fell short of an overall majority. A reason for that was what happened in seats like Eastleigh which in terms of the votes required for victory was number 12 on…

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Next weekend’s Italian Election by Andrea Parma

Next weekend’s Italian Election by Andrea Parma

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Can Silvio prevent a left majority? Italy is set to hold parliamentary elections on February 24-25th. In 2008 Silvio Berlusconi comfortably won, leading the centre-left coalition of Walter Veltroni by around 9%. As is often the case on the Italian political scene, his government couldn’t finish its 5 year term and Mario Monti took over as a “technocrat” PM in late 2011. 47 lists or coalitions of lists are contesting this election but just five coalitions are likely to poll…

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With the first #Eastleigh ballots starting to be cast I am betting that Diane James of Ukip will beat Labour

With the first #Eastleigh ballots starting to be cast I am betting that Diane James of Ukip will beat Labour

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Diane James – the Ukip candidate in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2013 Many of those registered to vote by post received their ballot packs yesterday and if past elections are anything to go by then a sizeable proportion will have been completed and posted them back by tomorrow morning. The election has already started. My reading is that the Labour vote will be squeezed by the sheer intensity of the LD campaign. The reason the yellows…

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After the ComRes online poll with changed methodology the YouGov Sunday Times survey paints a very different picture

After the ComRes online poll with changed methodology the YouGov Sunday Times survey paints a very different picture

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Today’s YouGov poll for the S Times paints a very different picture of opinion than last night’s ComRes online. See – twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2013 Which is right YouGov or ComRes online revised? ComRes in its online form only started polling after GE2010 and as such is untested at a general election. Last night we saw the latest for the IoS and Sunday Mirror with extraordinary numbers showing a quarter of the sample saying they were…

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ComRes online LAB lead remains at 5 percent

ComRes online LAB lead remains at 5 percent

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LAB lead stays at 5% in new ComRes online poll for Indy/S Mirror. New methodology gives big boost to others twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2013 Economy I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 27% (+2) Disagree 51% (-4) Net agree -24% (+6) I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 20% (-1) Disagree 55% (+3) Net agree -35% (-4) Change…

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