The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

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Big split in betting opinion on Ukip’s chances of winning #Eastleigh. PaddyPower have it at 25/1 – Ladbrokes now 12/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 Farage’s party will do better than we think All the reports I am getting from Eastleigh suggest that Ukip is going to do well in the by-election next Thursday and those who took my advice on Monday to back them in the LAB vote match markets are likely to end up as…

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Why the Speccie’s James Forsyth thinks the Eastleigh Lib Dems are a “racing certainty”

Why the Speccie’s James Forsyth thinks the Eastleigh Lib Dems are a “racing certainty”

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A bitterly cold Thursday morning in #Eastleigh. twitter.com/AdLibMag/statu… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 The by-election is all about the power of the party databases There’s an excellent feature in the latest Spectator by political editor, James Forsyth, in which he gets to the heart of why the yellows should hold the seat. It’s all about the data and how it’s deployed. Forsyth writes: “… While the Tories are knocking on doors trying to find supporters, the Lib Dems…

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The CON Eastleigh campaign goes into damage limitation mode for the final week

The CON Eastleigh campaign goes into damage limitation mode for the final week

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Latest Lib Dem poster highlighting CON candidate absence from this morning’s 5live hustings. twitter.com/NickThornsby/s… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 .@timfarron on Hutchings no-show tmrw at 5Live Eastleigh special: “You hv to ask why the Conservative machine keeps trying to hide her away” — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 20, 2013 On balance keeping Hutchings off 5live today was correct No doubt the post mortem on the CON Eastleigh campaign will focus how the party found itself lumbered with a…

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Pic of the day? Boris telling Tim Montgomerie that he is opposed to the mansion tax

Pic of the day? Boris telling Tim Montgomerie that he is opposed to the mansion tax

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Boris explaining ro Tim Montgomerie that he was wrong on mansion taxes. twitpic.com/c5erpe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 Just another campaign visit to Eastleigh This is Michael White’s report of the Mayor’s 30 minutes of door-knocking in Eastleigh. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Guido joins the rush to bet on the yellows in Eastleigh

Guido joins the rush to bet on the yellows in Eastleigh

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#Eastleigh. Further moves to LDs & Ukip for 3rd based on ACTUAL latest Betfair bets. LD 75% chance, CON 20% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 LDs#Eastleigh: 4/11 Ladbrokes bit.ly/c5gpH6, 1/3 Hills bit.ly/u6wr 2/7 Bet365 bit.ly/g4saCk &PaddyPower — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 Why Guido is betting heavily on a yellow victory in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013

Ukip local by-election worry for the Tories as we go into the final week in Eastleigh

Ukip local by-election worry for the Tories as we go into the final week in Eastleigh

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MT @msmithsonpb: LDs gain in Chelmsford by election.LD 543 (38%) Con 423 (30%) UKIP 280 (20%) Lab 129 (9%) GRN 47. — Gawain Towler (@GawainTowler) February 20, 2013 @msmithsonpb Vote share changes in the#Broomfield, Chelmsford BC byelection: #LibDems +15%, #Tories -14%. LibDem gain… — ColinW (@sxybio) February 20, 2013 In the total absence of any new Eastleigh by-election polling there’s a marked lack of data as we enter the final week of the campaign. One pointer that might worry the…

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The CON team tries to turn it round with eight campaigning days to go

The CON team tries to turn it round with eight campaigning days to go

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Lib Dem housing horror, shock, smear, cute bunnies in #Eastleigh ! twitter.com/byelection/sta… — Michael Fabricant (@Mike_Fabricant) February 19, 2013 Will this approach resonate with voters? With both the LAB and CON candidates being under serious fire in recent days the blues are turning their guns on the Lib Dem over a big planning issue. Their leaflet is above. One of the problems with having a local councillor as a candidate is that he/she is always vulnerable to things like this…

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This looks like a row Cameron should not have got into

This looks like a row Cameron should not have got into

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he Speccie gets it teeth into Cameron over the Mantel-Kate row. blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/20… … twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 19, 2013 The full Spectator article, in which Freddy Gray pulls no punches, is here.