David Herdson: Osborne – time to go?

David Herdson: Osborne – time to go?

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You can get 3/1 with PaddyPower that Osborne will not be Chancellor by end of year. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Is it three strikes and out? In practical terms, the loss of the UK’s triple-A credit rating with one of the three main agencies is unlikely to have much impact. France and the USA have both been through the same process without undue trauma, and besides, there’s enough information and interest in the sovereign debt of…

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Eastleigh: Now Survation for the Mail on Sunday has the Tories 4 percent ahead

Eastleigh: Now Survation for the Mail on Sunday has the Tories 4 percent ahead

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Survation Eastleigh poll for Mail on Sunday has Tories 4% ahead. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2013 Is it going to be down to a battle of the pollsters It’s very rare that ahead of a election two pollsters give diametrically opposite projections of the outcome. Well that’s the situation tonight following a new by-election poll just out for tomorrow’s Mail on Sunday which has projected vote shares that are very different from last night’s Populus poll for…

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If Eastleigh goes to Ukip EdM could be the only leader left standing at GE2015

If Eastleigh goes to Ukip EdM could be the only leader left standing at GE2015

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The outcome will change the way we look at GE2015 Consider for a moment what is at stake for the coalition party leaders, Dave and Nick, as they prepare to fight the Eastleigh by-election. This is unlike any of the other by-elections in this parliament because, on paper at least, the battle doesn’t involve the red team as we’ve seen from the latest Populus poll. Until now the general election hopes for the Lib Dems have been kept alive by…

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Very high levels of don’t knows amongst 2010 voters in Times Populus Eastleigh poll suggest that battle is still wide open

Very high levels of don’t knows amongst 2010 voters in Times Populus Eastleigh poll suggest that battle is still wide open

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Pie chart showing breakdown of support in today’s Times Populus #Eastleigh poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2013 The only real certainty is that Labour is out of it Overnight I’ve been fortunate to have be given the dataset from today’s Populus Eastleigh poll for the Times and the big message is that this battle is far tighter than the 5% Lib Dem lead might suggest. Very significant numbers of 2010 voters for the three main parties, 30%…

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Lib Dems move to a 5 point lead in Eastleigh with Populus

Lib Dems move to a 5 point lead in Eastleigh with Populus

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  Lib Dems 33 (+2) Conservatives 28 (-6) UKIP 21 (+8) Labour 11 (-8) The changes are from the Populus poll for Lord Ashcroft earlier on this month, this is not a strict comparison, but for illustrative purposes, PBers can decide for themselves, if they prefer this approach or not. Other salient points from the poll But the Populus poll suggests that the election will be swayed by local issues rather than national figures. Fewer than two in five (37…

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Concern about immigration the biggest mover in the February Issues Index from Ipsos-MORI

Concern about immigration the biggest mover in the February Issues Index from Ipsos-MORI

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Feb Ipsos MORI Issues index has immigration the biggest riser.Economy still top. EU still doesn’t make top 10 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 22, 2013 The regular polling that measures salience The monthly isssues index from Ipsos-MORI is one of my favourite regular surveys because it is the only one that is designed to measure how salient people’s concerns are. This is done by having the interviews take place face-to-face and to ask what that sampled see as the…

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Henry G Manson on what LAB voters should do in the battle for Eastleigh

Henry G Manson on what LAB voters should do in the battle for Eastleigh

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Ladbrokes up/down #Eastleigh vote shate mkt now has CON’s Maria Hutchings at 29%. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 The aim should be to punish Cameron next Thursday It’s been easy for Labour supporters and MPs to focus all their fire on Liberal Democrats these last few years. There was a time when many believed the Coalition would not last the distance and that dumping on the Liberal Democrats was key to breaking it up and triggering…

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The run up to Eastleigh: Tories suffer 2nd local by-election set-back in 3 days following big move to Ukip

The run up to Eastleigh: Tories suffer 2nd local by-election set-back in 3 days following big move to Ukip

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RT @juvelad: #cromer by-election results. Lib dem gain #libdems 558, lab 240, ukip 218, torys 18140.6% turn out #lgbtld >>Jesus wept. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) February 22, 2013 @davidppritchard Tories had held it before. Went from 1st to 4th. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) February 22, 2013 Another gain for the Lib Dems With all eyes looking for pointers on Eastleigh the Tories have suffered another big local by-election blow with the Lib Dems chalking up their second gain in three…

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