Are those green shoots?

Are those green shoots?

Is there a recovery underway and what effect might it have? After a cold and dark winter, the sight of spring flowers defiantly if tentatively piercing the earth and braving the still chill winds is always something to raise the spirits; a pointer to sunnier days ahead.  As with nature, so with economics: recoveries from recessions are usually patchy and slow to begin with but there comes a point where despite the bitter blasts from the continent, growth is at…

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Lord Ashcroft marginals poll out

Lord Ashcroft marginals poll out

New Ashcroft marginals poll points to LAB majority of 84. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 Ashcroft marginals poll suggests that CON would lose to LAB 93 of its 107 most marginal seats — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013   LDs would lose 17 to CON and 13 to LAB according to Ashcroft marginals poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013   Lord Ashcroft has conducted and published a poll in  213 constituencies throughout Great Britain –…

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ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

The Eastleigh third place has just added to the gloom The Times leads on the ConHome survey suggesting that most Tories think #GE2015 is already lost. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 The Times is reporting that a Conhome survey found that just 7% ofCON members believe that the party come win a majority at #GE2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 75% of those in a Conhome survey reported in Times believe that Labour,either in coalition…

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Is contribution key to making welfare work for Labour?

Is contribution key to making welfare work for Labour?

Henry G Manson on Friday Taking Yvette Cooper’s immigration speech yesterday at face value and you simply might think the party is tacking to the right on this issue simply to shore up support it lost in the run up to the last election. There’s certainly something in that, but one reference should be seen in a different light and possibly a clue that wider changes to Labour welfare policy are brewing. Yvette Cooper argued  “one practical change within existing European…

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Martin McGuinness’s old seat is held by Sinn Fein

Martin McGuinness’s old seat is held by Sinn Fein

Mid Ulster elects another SF MP who won’t take his seat at Wesminster. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 Declared Result Francie Molloy (SF) won the seat after polling 17,462 votes (46.93%) Joint unionist candidate Nigel Lutton was second on 12,781 votes. The SDLP’s Patsy McGlone polled 6,478, with the Alliance Party’s Eric Bullick on 487. Sinn Fein HOLD with a majority of 4,681 Adjusted Result (Unionist allocation) Francis Molloy, SF 17462 46.93% Patsy McGlone, SDLP 6478…

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Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome

Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome

A new Ashcroft megapoll with 20,022 sample finds that more people want another coalition than a CON maj. LAB maj top. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 Precisely 26 months till the GE2015 results start coming in In exactly two years and two months on another Friday morning many of us will have been up all night watching the results of GE2015 come in. Will we be seeing the LAB majority that almost all surveys since Osborne’s March…

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to tonight’s by-elections

Harry Hayfield’s guide to tonight’s by-elections

Ulster Mid (Sinn Fein Defence) 1992: Democratic Unionist 19,274 (41%) SDLP 14,360 (31%) Sinn Fein 11,340 (24%) Alliance 1,229 (3%) Others 770 (2%) 1997: Sinn Fein 20,294 (40% +16%) Democratic Unionist 18,411 (36% -5%) SDLP 11,205 (22% -9%) Alliance 460 (1% -2%) Others 299 (1% -1%) Sinn Fein GAIN from Democratic Unionist 2001: Sinn Fein 25,202 (51% +11%) Democratic Unionist 15,549 (31% -5%) SDLP 8,376 (17% -5%) Others 509 (1% n/c) Sinn Fein HOLD 2005: Sinn Fein 21,641 (48% -3%) Democratic…

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