Is Any Other Party worth a bet for South Shields?

Is Any Other Party worth a bet for South Shields?

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Latest pie chart showing the betting activity and odds on #SouthShields by election. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2013 Rather than a Bradford West – maybe a Blaenau Gwent? The South Shields by-election ought to be as close to a certainty as it’s possible to get as by-elections go.  With Labour the sole main party of opposition, in a seat that they’ve held since 1935 where they’re defending a majority of more than eleven thousand secured on a…

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Ipsos-MORI: The demographic group which has most moved away from the Tories since GE2010 – low paid working women

Ipsos-MORI: The demographic group which has most moved away from the Tories since GE2010 – low paid working women

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Ipsos-MORI data for FT shows 12% drop in CON support anongst low paid women since #GE2010 on.ft.com/XZrZ40 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2013 How do the blues appeal to those most bearing the brunt? The FT is reporting this morning that aggregate polling data from Ipsos-MORI covering the twelve months until March 2013 shows that the group most likely to have been turned off the Tories since GE2010 have been low paid working women. Their current level of…

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Peter the Punter marks your card for tomorrow’s Grand National

Peter the Punter marks your card for tomorrow’s Grand National

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The Grand National isn’t my favourite race but like the Boat Race and FA Cup Final, it is one of those televised events that takes a sport way beyond its usual public, so I somehow feel obliged to convey my thoughts on the contest to my adoring PB public and help those who would punt to do so with a little more chance of success, and those who would not with at least a little more understanding and enjoyment. Since…

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It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon did and denied Dave a majority in 2010

It is questionable that Tony could have done what Gordon did and denied Dave a majority in 2010

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Henry G Manson disputes Blair’s assertion that he’d have done better than Brown @ GE2010.bit.ly/16Boguz twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 Henry G Manson with a “What if” scenario Tony Blair’s remarks that “he could have given Cameron a run for his money” have raised a few eyebrows this morning. It’s opened up an intriguing “what if” scenario. It’s easy to look back in rose-tinted spectacles, and a number of commentators such as John Rentoul have an interest…

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After last night Ukip has now made more net gains in local by-elections in 2013 than Labour

After last night Ukip has now made more net gains in local by-elections in 2013 than Labour

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UKipwin NE Lincolnshire- Humberston & New Waltham from CON.UKIP 1098, CON 738 votes, LAB 470, LD 311. 3rd local gain in 4 wks — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 Ukip 2nd place @ Wigan – PembertonLAB 1084 UKIP 451 Com Action 203 CON 89 BNP 63 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 Ukip 2nd place@ Bilborough on Nottingham.LAB 1542 UKIP 347 CON 176 GRN 103 LD 96 Elvis 31 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 The purple…

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Harry Hayfield’s PB local elections special

Harry Hayfield’s PB local elections special

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Humberston and New Waltham on North East Lincolnshire (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Lab 25, Con 12, Lib Dem 4, UKIP 1 (Labour majority of eight) Results of last electoral cycle in ward (2010 – 2012) Party 2010 Votes 2010 Share 2011 Votes 2011 Share 2012 Votes 2012 Share Con 2,317 39% 1,327 38% 1,231 44% Lab 1,138 19% 756 22% 596 21% Lib Dem 1,852 31% 136 4%     Ind 183 3% 616 18%     UKIP…

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How it could go wrong for LAB in South Shields: 2. Ukip choosing someone as good as Eastleigh’s Diane James

How it could go wrong for LAB in South Shields: 2. Ukip choosing someone as good as Eastleigh’s Diane James

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What Ukip need in the coming by-election – the #SouthShields equivalent of Diane James – who came second @ Eastleigh. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2013   A key factor, which can be decisive, in by-elections is the party’s choice of candidates. Looking back to Easleigh only a few weeks ago there can be little doubt that Diane James played a huge part in Ukip’s second place. She was plausible, authentic and engaging – qualities which made it…

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Boris Johnson for PM polling? He was overstated by all 6 pollsters in final surveys ahead of May 2012 mayoral race

Boris Johnson for PM polling? He was overstated by all 6 pollsters in final surveys ahead of May 2012 mayoral race

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Great Boris Private Eye cover that’ll become a classic if ever he does become CONleader/PM.via @hendopolis twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2013 Remember how Ken ran him so close? Just before the Easter weekend we reported on a new YouGov poll that had a Boris-led Tory party level pegging with an EdM LAB one when the named leader voting intention question was put. This caused something of a stir and was in line with similar polling at the…

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