LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?

LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?

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The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 The Sunday Times today publishes the annual projection of national equivalent national vote share for the May local elections based on the performances of the parties in local by-elections. This, of course, is the production of the duo of Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher from the University of Plymouth. They, alongside Professor…

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As the measles outbreak continues YouGov finds that UKIP voters are more likely than others to believe that MMR is unsafe

As the measles outbreak continues YouGov finds that UKIP voters are more likely than others to believe that MMR is unsafe

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Chart from YouGov data on how Ukip voters are far more likely than others to believe that MMR vaccine is unsafe. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 LAB lead increases by 1% with YouGov Today’s YouGov snapshot for the Sunday Times sees LAB lead once again in single figures.CON 32,LAB 40,LD 11,UKIP 10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 YouGov leader ratings see rises for Dave & Nick but EdM’s down Cameron’s YouGov leadership ratings see him…

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The apparent greater enthusiasm amongst Ukip supporters could be reflected in the May 2nd locals where the Tories are the most vulnerable

The apparent greater enthusiasm amongst Ukip supporters could be reflected in the May 2nd locals where the Tories are the most vulnerable

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A factor driving Ukip in the national polls. Their supporters are much more likely to say”100% certain to vote” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013 Ladbrokes open the first market on the May 2 locals. It’s 5/2 that UKIP gain 100+ seats. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013 Just how many seats will the purples win? The big talking point at last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in London was how many seats will Ukip…

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David Herdson says the next general election could still be wide open

David Herdson says the next general election could still be wide open

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What we could have is an anti-unpopularity contest The YouGov poll last month which showed that a Boris Johnson-led Conservative Party would be neck-and-neck with Labour in vote share was perhaps not too much of a surprise.  After all, Johnson is among the most popular of current politicians and outpolled his party by some 20% in the London elections last year.  Whether such hypotheticals would translate into reality were Johnson PM is a different matter.  He currently holds a role…

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Test post from Dirty Dicks

Test post from Dirty Dicks

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We’ve had some technical problems today which is why there hasn’t been a new post all day. I’m at the PB gathering at Dirty Dicks where we’ve had a great turnout including a number who have travelled from as far as Manchester and Leeds to be here. I’ll report on things later. Mike Smithson

Henry G Manson on the LAB effort to take away the Tories most prized northern asset – the N Tyneside mayoralty

Henry G Manson on the LAB effort to take away the Tories most prized northern asset – the N Tyneside mayoralty

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EdM on ferry crossing the Tyne to support campaign to win back for LAB the North Tyneside mayoralty from the Tories twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2013 Henry G Manson on an intriguing battle There has been some discussion this week on the strength of didn’t women MPs in the Conservative Party and in Labour with some wondering if there will be another ‘Margaret’ in the near future. I can’t spot many, although a couple of years ago…

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With just two weeks to go before the biggest sets of elections of 2013 – tonight’s local by-election

With just two weeks to go before the biggest sets of elections of 2013 – tonight’s local by-election

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Harry Hayfield with his weekly preview Angmering on Arun (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 4, Lab 3, Ind 1 (Conservative majority of 40) Last Local Election (2011): Con 1520, 1404, 1324 (Average: 39%) Lib Dem 550 (16%) Lab 538 (15%) Ind 524 (15%) UKIP 517 (15%) Candidates duly nominated: Jamie Bennett (Lib Dem), Andy Cooper (Con), Carly Goodwin (Lab) It is now just over a month since the Liberal Democrats inflicted what can only be…

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Ipsos Mori Political Monitor for April

Ipsos Mori Political Monitor for April

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Ipsos Mori Political Monitor for April is out now, the changes are from their last poll in March   Conservatives 29 (+2) Labour 38 (-2) Lib Dems 10 (-1) UKIP 15 (+2)   The UKIP share is the highest share ever for the party in a phone poll On the Leadership ratings Mr Miliband has the highest net satisfaction rating of the three main party leaders, on minus 16 compared with Mr Cameron’s minus 28 and Mr Clegg’s dire minus…

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