The limitations of polling: How Americans responded when asked if a law that didn’t exist should be repealed

The limitations of polling: How Americans responded when asked if a law that didn’t exist should be repealed

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What happened when YouGov asked Americans whether a fictional 1975 Act should be repealed. huff.to/Zcb4dD twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 12, 2013 An experiment by YouGov in the US for HuffPost The above charts are taken from an excellent piece by Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post on polling about specific issues. When phone samples were asked for their views about the repeal of the 1975 Public Affairs Act, a piece of legislation that doesn’t exist, 20-40% of those questioned…

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Tonght’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

Tonght’s Local By-Election Preview by Harry Hayfield

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Two local by-elections tonight. Preview on PB by Harry Hayfield bit.ly/ZLv8qb twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 Lascelles on Darlington (Lab Defence) Last Local Election Result (2011): Lab 34, Con 14, Lib Dem 5 (Labour majority of 15) Result of last election (2011): Lab 1,143 (80%), Con 277 (20%) Candidates duly nominated: Lewis Cairns (Con), Helen Crumbie (Lab), Howard Jones (Lib Dem) Darlington (the constituency that Labour won in a by-election just prior to the 1983 general election, only…

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More than two decades after leaving Downing Street and in the week of her demise the country is still totally split over Mrs. Thatcher

More than two decades after leaving Downing Street and in the week of her demise the country is still totally split over Mrs. Thatcher

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Even over her funeral Mrs. Thatcher continues to divide the nation. See pie chart from Survation/Mirror poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 If this polling is right Dave might have misread the public mood According to newspaper reports this morning there’s been a huge row between Number 10 and the speaker, John Bercow, over Mrs. Thatcher. Bercow didn’t want the recall of parliament or the changing of the parliamentary time-table for next Wednesday – the day of…

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Tories drop to record low in today’s YouGov daily poll

Tories drop to record low in today’s YouGov daily poll

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Labour moves to 14% lead Tories drop to a record low of 28%in latest YouGov.CON 28%: LAB 42%: LD 12%: UKIP 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 YouGov daily poll – April 3rd to April 10th twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 @bluenose_carl If YouGov was following normal pattern fieldwork would have been from about 5pm on Tuesday to 5pm last night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013 The last three pollsters to report -Opinium,TNS…

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Tonight’s local By-Election Preview : April 10th 2013 (t-22 days until Counties 2013)

Tonight’s local By-Election Preview : April 10th 2013 (t-22 days until Counties 2013)

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Wigmore on Luton (Lib Dem Defence) to be held on April 10th 2013 Last Local Election Result (2011): Lab 36, Lib Dem 8, Con 4 (Labour majority of 24) Result of last election (2011): Lib Dem 1,239, 1402, 1113 (average: 1,252 (41%) Lab 786, 734, 781 (average: 767 (25%) Con 787, 807, 559 (average: 718(23%) UKIP 324 from one candidate (11%) Candidates duly nominated: John Magill (Ind), Lance Richardson (UKIP), Marc Scheimann (Green), Alan Skepelhorn (Lib Dem), James Taylor (Lab), John Young (Con)…

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The Thatcher polling continues….Best PM since ’45 and her greatest achievements

The Thatcher polling continues….Best PM since ’45 and her greatest achievements

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YouGov’s ‘Greatest British PM since 1945’ findings broken down by party support twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2013 What supporters of the different parties think were Maggie’s greatest achievements.YouGov table. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2013

Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error

Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error

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Chart showing trend in YouGov daily poll April 3 – April 9 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2013 Today’s YouGov daily poll has CON 33%: LAB 41%: LD 10%: Ukip 10%. So the numbers are almost back to where they were in the first survey after the Easter break – 33/41/9/10. There’s been a lot going and it’s easy to choose one of several factors and say that is the driver. But it could all just be the…

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Ukip are fielding candidates in three-quarters of the local seats up on May 2nd

Ukip are fielding candidates in three-quarters of the local seats up on May 2nd

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That’s three times as many as in 2009 Mark Senior has published the first tally of candidates who’ll be fighting the local elections on May 2nd. This is the party break-down. Con 2,249 Lab 2,165 LDem 1,760 UKIP 1,727 Green 877 BNP 100 TUSC 116 Liberal 11 Meb K 25 Ind/Others 782 For Ukip to have the nationwide organisation capable of putting up candidate in three quarters of the seats is a massive achievement. They’ve nearly beaten the LD total…

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