Tonight’s local By-Election Preview : April 10th 2013 (t-22 days until Counties 2013)

Tonight’s local By-Election Preview : April 10th 2013 (t-22 days until Counties 2013)

Wigmore on Luton (Lib Dem Defence) to be held on April 10th 2013

Last Local Election Result (2011): Lab 36, Lib Dem 8, Con 4 (Labour majority of 24)

Result of last election (2011): Lib Dem 1,239, 1402, 1113 (average: 1,252 (41%) Lab 786, 734, 781 (average: 767 (25%) Con 787, 807, 559 (average: 718(23%) UKIP 324 from one candidate (11%)

Candidates duly nominated: John Magill (Ind), Lance Richardson (UKIP), Marc Scheimann (Green), Alan Skepelhorn (Lib Dem), James Taylor (Lab), John Young (Con)

Luton has been for many a year a right Conservative / Labour battleground except for one election in 1970 when the normal rules of politics underwent a bit of a change.

Luton, normally a very sensible constituency with a high proportion of people who aren’t a bit silly, has gone completely ga-ga.

That is of course the great Monty Python election the Sensible Party took on the Silly Party (with a couple of notable appearances from several groups that had split from the main parties) but like most parts of the South East of England, Luton tends to follow the national picture voting Conservative when the Conservatives are polling well and Labour when Labour are polling well. So therefore with Labour doing about as well as they have done in quite a few years (certainly since 2010) you would expect Labour to mop up any anti Labour opposition (and yet this was a Lib Dem win in a year when the Lib Dems were well and truly hammered) so could the Lib Dems (who have been recovering in recent months) hold off Labour? Or could flavour of the month UKIP take everyone by suprise and add another gain to their recent collection?

Result: Lib Dem 982 (47% +6% on average), Lab 517 (25% unchanged on average), Con 281 (13% -10% on average), UKIP 230 (11% unchanged on average), Ind 62 (3%), Green 27 (1%). Lib Dem HOLD on a swing of 3% from Lab to Lib Dem (on average)

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