Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street

Tonight Ed Miliband is a step closer to Downing Street

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The existing electoral advantages that LAB has are magnified in a 4 party system. Ukip’s rise lowers the bar for EdM twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 The benefits of not having your support evenly spread Just for fun I keyed in the BBC’s projected national vote shares of CON 24, LAB 29, LD 14, Ukip 23 into Martin Baxter seat calculator at ElectoralCalculus. The result was remarkable.LAB was on 324 seats – just two short of an…

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The results continue to roll in

The results continue to roll in

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Latest BBC vote share changes twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 @goodwinmj In divisions where they stood in 2009: UKIP up 14 points to 26%; Greens down 3 points at 7%; and BNP down 11 points to 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 @kevint1972 My £100 8/1 bet that Ukip will win 2+ seats at GE2015 looks good. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 These are the first County Council elections since 1993 being held…

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The 2013 locals so far: the John Curtice verdict

The 2013 locals so far: the John Curtice verdict

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Prof John Curtice: UKIP “greatest threat to established party system since WWW2” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2013 Curtice on Ukip UKIP results looking “quite remarkable”, averaging 26% in council wards contested – #vote2013 analyst Prof Curtice bbc.in/16vV1M9 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) May 3, 2013 The story so far #vote2013 so far: Labour win South Shields by-election; Tories retain 5 councils, lose 2; UKIP make gains. Go to bbc.co.uk/vote2013 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) May 3, 2013 The LD…

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Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time

Local election night on PB: Your guide – Harry Hayfield and your interactive chart to see what happend last time

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Today sees the sternest test for David Cameron out of any local election he has so far had to face. The 2009 local elections were a complete Conservative triumph. Of the 2,492 councillors elected at those elections, 1,494 (or nearly 60%) were Conservative and apart from Bristol, Cornwall, Cumbria, Northumberland and Anglesey, the Conservatives are defending majority control in every single council up for election (which make the pitfalls even more dangerous). At the time of those local elections, the…

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It has been working class voters who have been the main driver of the Ukip vote

It has been working class voters who have been the main driver of the Ukip vote

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This is what the polling showed in Eastleigh Above is the split for the final Eastleigh poll by Lord Ashcroft. As can be seen it was C2s and DEs who swung most to the purples. We are seeing the same trend in current polling. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

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South Shields: LAB punters getting slightly nervous on Betfair with price edging out from 1/99 to 1/25.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2013 May 2nd 2013: The day could be a turning point in British politics Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions. Remember that in local by-elections in principal authorities that UKip have chalked up three…

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The politics of Wind farms: Even CON voters are more in favour than against

The politics of Wind farms: Even CON voters are more in favour than against

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But Ukip voters express the most opposition By 33% to 31% ComRes poll finds CON supporters would be more likely to vote for candidates in the locals who are in favour of wind farms. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2013 The findings above are from a new ComRes online poll commissioned by RenewableUK, the trade body for the wind industry. One question, featured above, was on whether voters would be more or less inclined to vote for candidates who…

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Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4

Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4

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Note the other methodology qualifications On a night of many polls perhaps the most interesting and relevant to tomorrow’s local elections is the above one from ComRes online which was funded by the Coalition for Marriage – the body that’s been campaigning against the gay marriage proposals. Because of the geographical specifics and likely low turnout this has been a very challenging survey for the pollster to carry out and there are some important qualifications. Unlike normal ComRes voting intention…

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