Note the other methodology qualifications
On a night of many polls perhaps the most interesting and relevant to tomorrow’s local elections is the above one from ComRes online which was funded by the Coalition for Marriage – the body that’s been campaigning against the gay marriage proposals.
Because of the geographical specifics and likely low turnout this has been a very challenging survey for the pollster to carry out and there are some important qualifications.
Unlike normal ComRes voting intention polls this has not been past vote weighted and the demographic weightings that have been applied are for the GB as a whole not the specific numbers from the local authority areas up for election tomorrow. ComRes has just included those saying they are 10/10 certain to vote. That was 56% of the sample The gender split of those saying they were certain to vote was 6:4 Male:Female.
It is highly unlikely that turnout tomorrow will be anywhere near 56%.
There is a very sharp division between men and women in the poll which is why I’ve added the gender tabs so you can see for yourself.
Remember, as well, is that the bulk of seats up tomorrow are in what has traditionally been strong CON territory. Thus even on the same day as Blair’s 1997 landslide many of these council remained in Tory hands.
There’s also a Populus poll of the over-50s which was commissioned by Saga and the sample was confined to its customers. I’m trying to establish the basis of the weightings because I doubt very much whether the Saga customer profile matches the country as a whole.
There’s also the first Survation full national Westminster voting intention poll since January and today’s YouGov.
Survation. Fieldwork 26-28 April: (Westminster VI) LAB 36% (-2) CON 29% (-2) UKIP 16% (+2) LD 12% (+2)Change since 26/01 (MOS)
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013
Today’s YouGov has LAB once again with 9% leadCON 30LAB 39LD 11Ukip 14
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2013
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