After the record lows CON up 3 Ukip down 3 The changes in today’s YouGov are all within the margin of error – even so they will be enough to relieve some of the pressure on the blue team. Not only will they be pleased to be back in the 30s the changes all seem to have been at UKIP’s expense. As we always say we need to see more results like this before we can draw many conclusions. But…
After all the excitement of last Thursday, which saw the worst Conservative performance in a set of local elections since 1995 (25% national projected vote share), Labour make no change on their 2010 local election performance (29% national projected vote share), the Liberal Democrats see thirty three years of local election advances wiped out (14% national projected vote share, only 1% higher than their tally in 1980) and with the help of UKIP, the Others “win” the local elections with…
Nice infographic from Ipsos-MORI for today’s Scotland poll which has NO 28% ahead. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2013 Now just 23% of Scotland’s women back the plan Ipsos-MORI chart showing how different Scottish subgroups responded to the #indyref question twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2013 Salmond’s deputy tops the Scottish leader ratings Alex Salmond once again being out done by his deputy in the latest Ipsos-MORI Scottish leader ratings twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May…
And LAB drops to 15 month low as UKIP surges The figures from the latest News International daily poll by YouGov are above and show the continued damage that the dramatic rise of Ukip is having particularly on the Tories. Since YouGov started polling after the 2001 General Election the blues have never been on this level. The LAB 38% is the lowest for them since February 20th 2012. Only the LDs in this survey seem relatively unaffected. In terms…
Polling carried out BEFORE the news of Nadine’s reinstatement And Ukip voters weren’t that keen on the prospect of her switching My whip has been restored with no conditions other than those which apply to any party MP. Work continues as normal — Nadine Dorries MP (@NadineDorriesMP) May 8, 2013
EdM and Dave almost have the chamber to themselves twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 @dpjhodges , who writes almost exclusively on EdM, has agree to double up our wager on which’ll get most seats @ GE2015. He says CON, me LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 The initial bet was for £50 – a straight even money wager. Now Dan and I have agreed to raise that to £100. Labour don’t even need to win…
28% of the 60+ group but just 6% of the 25-39s This poll is the first one to be published where all the fieldwork took place after the results of Thursday’s local elections became known. There’s one slight caveat. Polling that takes place over long holiday weekends can sometimes produce odd results. With this one YouGov started on Bank Holiday Monday. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB Honoured to be ‘followed’ by @msmithsonpb -psephological…
In the first full YouGov poll carried out after the locals UKIP move to highest level with the firm CON 29%, LAB 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 16% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 But Farage’s party would still get zero MPs Feeding tonight’s YouGov into the Electoral Calculus HoCpredictor we get a LAB majority of 108. Ukip on zero seats twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2013 The Electoral Calculus Commons seat predictor has been revised to factor…