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No boundary changes and no AV: EdM is proving to be a lucky LAB leader

10/5/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Henry G Manson on how the Tories have made GE2015 easier for Ed There is a bit of talk as to whether certain Conservative MP are able to be endorsed by UKIP and stand with two party emblems next to their name on the ballots paper. This is now possible under updated election law. This week Peter Bone MP took to the airwaves arguing for joint Conservative and UKIP candidates to take advantage of this: “There was a tremendous Conservative…

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This morning’s YouGov should ease some of the Tory jitters

10/5/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After the record lows CON up 3 Ukip down 3 The changes in today’s YouGov are all within the margin of error – even so they will be enough to relieve some of the pressure on the blue team. Not only will they be pleased to be back in the 30s the changes all seem to have been at UKIP’s expense. As we always say we need to see more results like this before we can draw many conclusions. But…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 9th 2013

9/5/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

After all the excitement of last Thursday, which saw the worst Conservative performance in a set of local elections since 1995 (25% national projected vote share), Labour make no change on their 2010 local election performance (29% national projected vote share), the Liberal Democrats see thirty three years of local election advances wiped out (14% national projected vote share, only 1% higher than their tally in 1980) and with the help of UKIP, the Others “win” the local elections with…

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With 17 months to go the Scottish #IndyRef YES appears to have a mountain to climb

9/5/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Nice infographic from Ipsos-MORI for today’s Scotland poll which has NO 28% ahead. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2013 Now just 23% of Scotland’s women back the plan Ipsos-MORI chart showing how different Scottish subgroups responded to the #indyref question twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2013 Salmond’s deputy tops the Scottish leader ratings Alex Salmond once again being out done by his deputy in the latest Ipsos-MORI Scottish leader ratings twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May…

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YouGov’s latest daily poll has the Tories slumping to the lowest point ever with the firm

9/5/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And LAB drops to 15 month low as UKIP surges The figures from the latest News International daily poll by YouGov are above and show the continued damage that the dramatic rise of Ukip is having particularly on the Tories. Since YouGov started polling after the 2001 General Election the blues have never been on this level. The LAB 38% is the lowest for them since February 20th 2012. Only the LDs in this survey seem relatively unaffected. In terms…

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YouGov finds CON voters more hostile to return of Nadine than the public as a whole

8/5/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Polling carried out BEFORE the news of Nadine’s reinstatement And Ukip voters weren’t that keen on the prospect of her switching My whip has been restored with no conditions other than those which apply to any party MP. Work continues as normal — Nadine Dorries MP (@NadineDorriesMP) May 8, 2013

If Dan Hodges wins his bet with me then Ed will have to stay on the opposition side of the chamber

8/5/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

EdM and Dave almost have the chamber to themselves twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/stâ€¦ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 @dpjhodges , who writes almost exclusively on EdM, has agree to double up our wager on which’ll get most seats @ GE2015. He says CON, me LAB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013 The initial bet was for Â£50 – a straight even money wager. Now Dan and I have agreed to raise that to Â£100. Labour don’t even need to win…

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Saying you will vote for Ukip at GE2015: The great divider between the generations

8/5/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

28% of the 60+ group but just 6% of the 25-39s This poll is the first one to be published where all the fieldwork took place after the results of Thursday’s local elections became known. There’s one slight caveat. Polling that takes place over long holiday weekends can sometimes produce odd results. With this one YouGov started on Bank Holiday Monday. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB Honoured to be ‘followed’ by @msmithsonpb -psephological…

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