Your chance to predict to vote share At GE2010 UKIP’s national vote share was 3.1%. What will it be at the next general election? 0-5% 5-8% 8-11% 11-14% 14-17% 17-20% 20-23% 23-100% How many seats will they win? How many seats will UKIP win at the next general election? Zero 1 2-5 6-10 More than 10
If the coalition is to end prematurely then it won’t be because the LDs quit. Clegg response.goo.gl/FRdUp twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 22, 2013 Tories are being told: There’ll be no supply & confidence In a speech this morning Nick Clegg’s making it very clear that his party will not quit the coalition ahead of the general election. So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg…
Ukip edge up 2 The changes are on the previous daily poll. After last night’s different pictures from the YouGov and Survation polls the latest one from the former, just published, sees the blues drop sharply and Ukip rising 2. The fall in the CON share of 4% is greater than the margin of error and this is either an outlier or an indication that we are seeing a new trend developing. The general theory is that voters punish parties…
UKIP’s surge has swamped parties like National Health Action. 14 mths ago Ashcroft polling had them at 18% to this twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013 Above is from some polling carried out for Michael Ashcroft in March 2012 on the possible impact that a NHS party could have on the next election. As can be seen the party chalked up 18% in the poll taking votes from LAB and the LDs and leaving the blues ahead. Those…
So why the huge difference? The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night. UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point. The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question….
If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.
The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections. Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch. Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right. Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking…
What does this say about Dave’s current position Full details of the “Will Cameron face aleadership challenge?” betting from PaddyPower. bit.ly/I8PkIO See. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013 There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015. My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this…