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Final vote tally from last month’s locals shows UKIP in second place in seats contested

29/6/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the 2,208 seats that were fought on May 2nd. In addition to the numbers I’ve included as an option on the chart’s dropdown the shares from the ComRes local elections poll. Compared with the overall vote totals this overstated LAB and UKIP but understated CON and the LDs. These figures differ considerably from the notional national vote extrapolations put out by the…

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Leadership ratings: a good guide but not a magic measure

29/6/2013 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

And in any case, itâ€™s too close to call right now Itâ€™s sometimes said that oppositions donâ€™t win elections, governments lose them but thatâ€™s only true to a degree.Â A popular and effective government will always win re-election because in such circumstances, the swing voters in the electorate will have little reason to listen to the opposition, little to gain and potentially much to lose by voting the government out no matter how good the opposition, and in all probability…

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Nighthawks is now open

28/6/2013 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Home of the webâ€™s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the dayâ€™s events in PB NightHawks. If you’ve always been a lurker, and you’re thinking I Just Don’t Know What To Do With Myself, why not Delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story) The politicians that look like peppers Labour may back early vote on UK’s EU membership David…

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The Coalition has left it too late to benefit from infrastructure

28/6/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

George Osborne in high-vis jacket pic.twitter.com/mDuo5lq5gH — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 28, 2013 Henry G Manson on the week’s big political news This week Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander trumpeted a raft of infrastructure investments totalling Â£100bn. There are some reasons to question with the overall figure. As the Independent says â€˜some of the projects, in the best tradition of political spin, had already been announced. Others, it turned out, may never be built at all. But a…

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Lord Ashcroft’s mega poll suggests that Boris NOT the magic bullet that would win GE2015 for the Tories

28/6/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

“In his London campaigns Boris undeniably attracted voters who usually support other parties. As our research shows, this would be less likely to work in a general election. Otherwise Labour and Lib Dem supporting voters backed Boris as Mayor on a personal mandate and a personal manifesto; for many, the fact that he was a Tory was incidental. Asking them to vote for a Conservative government, inhabited by the Conservative Party and implementing Conservative policies but with Boris at the…

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Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

27/6/2013 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Billericay East on Basildon (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2012): Con 25, Lab 15, Lib Dem 2 (Conservative majority of 8) Current Electoral Cycle Election Results Local Elections Â 2010 Local Elections Â 2011 Local Elections Â 2012 Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Conservatives 4,084 61% 2,626 65% 1,502 58% Labour 737 11% 567 14% 383 15% Liberal Democrats 1,360 20% 528 13% 316 12% UKIP 308 5% 346 9% 409 16% BNP…

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Suddenly the high rollers get attracted by the #IndyRef betting

27/6/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Two NO bets of Â£200k each reported this week alone Now Ladbrokes report that a shop in Scotland took a Â£200k bet on the #IndyRef outcome being NO Hills took similar bet earlier in week — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2013 @metaneat If Ladbrokes and William Hill tell me this has happened then I believe them The NO #IndyRef price has tightened sharply — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2013 Hills tighten the NO price to 1/7 Current best NO…

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LAB moves to 42pc and UKIP slip to fourth in today’s YouGov

27/6/2013 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

YouGov voting intentions table showing how support has been moving away from UKIP In June. Back in 4th place today pic.twitter.com/y2mAJO6k0j — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 27, 2013 Labour appears to be benefitting most For the first time since mid-April UKIP has dropped below the LDs in fourth place in the YouGov daily poll. At the same time Labour continues to advance and today’s share and recent results suggest that the party is benefitting most from UKIP going off the…

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