Local By-Election Preview: September 5th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: September 5th 2013

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  Fenside on Boston (Eng Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 19, Others 10, Lab 3 (Con overall majority of 6) Last Election in ward (Emboldened denotes elected) English Democrats 231, 195 Boston Independents 182, 176 Labour 162, 159 Liberal Democrats 68, 51 Boston in Lincolnshire (part of the Boston and Skegness constituency) seems on the surface to be a perfectly normal Conservative heartland and back at the 2003 local elections it was (Con 12, Lab 11, Lib Dem…

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Betting round up

Betting round up

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Following on from the National Audit Office’s publication of the  report into Universal Credit, we saw this Iain Duncan Smith cut from 16/1 to 8/1 to be Next Cabinet Minister out. http://t.co/BjfT8LIPF6 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) September 5, 2013   I’ve been on longer odds on IDS, so I think the value has gone in this, however long standing and outstanding PB contributor, Peter from Putney suggested this bet earlier on today, which I think is a very good option, as…

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As long as Ipsos-Mori keeps on getting findings like this, does it vindicate ICM’s methodology?

As long as Ipsos-Mori keeps on getting findings like this, does it vindicate ICM’s methodology?

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Ipsos Mori's party dislike ratings pic.twitter.com/yqUk9vZFES — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2013 The Ipsos-Mori polling on which party is the most disliked, the Tories are the most disliked and Labour the least disliked. Now if we examine why ICM have earned the title of as the gold standard of polling, one of the main reasons is their spiral of silence of adjustment. To understand the spiral of silence adjustment here’s a brief outline, The “spiral of silence” came from an…

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Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

Will the other affiliated unions follow the GMB’s lead?

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And can Ed stop them? MIRROR: Ed's £9m in the red #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/YwkjyXqqxK — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 4, 2013 In the past week, whilst it has felt that there’s nothing happening in British politics other than Syria, yesterday saw a story that may have a crucial impact on the 2015 general election. The news was The 65-strong GMB executive announced on Wednesday that it would cut the number of its members affiliated to Labour from 420,000 to 50,000…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, it won’t turn your world, Upside Down, by delurking, I hope this intro will start a Chain Reaction of lurkers delurking. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Minority election: could black voters swing it in UK in…

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CON and UKIP voters are becoming more supportive of missile attacks on Syria – LAB and LD ones more hostile

CON and UKIP voters are becoming more supportive of missile attacks on Syria – LAB and LD ones more hostile

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This is looking more partisan The above chart has been produced by taking the party splits on the Syrian missile issue and comparing them with the data from a week yesterday. As can be seen the net support/oppose numbers have overall moved more towards the latter. But both CON and UKIP voters have become more supportive of the proposal. The latter is in a manner that appears at odds with Farage’s high profile anti-position. Labour voters have moved sharply to…

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TNS BMRB polling on Scottish Independence

TNS BMRB polling on Scottish Independence

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Support for Independence hits a new low with TNS-BMRB but support for the Union also falls as the big winner is the Don’t Knows. The changes are from their last poll in April of this year.   The question asked by TNS was “There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country” Which is near identical to the…

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