The main initial change that Ashcroft’s poll could produce is an easing of EdM’s position
How Labour tacticals are helping the LDs in their key targets Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Ashcroft mega-marginals poll has LAB doing better in the key battlegrounds than in country as a whole
@LordAshcroft poll finds LAB doing better in key CON-LAB battlegrounds than country as whole. 8.5% swing as opposed to 6.5% one — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2013 CON lead in LD battlegrounds just 1% up since GE2015 @LordAshcroft poll One in 4 LAB supporters ready to switch to LDs in CON-LD battlegrounds when specific constituency question asked — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2013 The 12,500 sample poll was carried out by phone in early August at a time when…
William Hill makes it 9-1 that GE2015 will lead to a second CON-LD coalition
At this price I’ve had a flutter – so should you With the party conference season opening today the bookies have got busy looking at existing markets and launching new ones. On LD seats we have:- William Hill open new market on LD seats at GE2015 4/1 0-20 seats 10/11 21-40 13/8 41 or more http://t.co/2F7WYoEVkx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 14, 2013 Ladbrokes LD seats GE2015 odds 31-40 11/4 41-50 7/2 21-30 4/1 11-20 6/1 51-60 10/1 Over 71 12/1 0-10 14/1 61-70 20/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…
Has Clegg told Cameron when he’ll stand down?
Deep speculation from David Herdson Back in the days of the USSR, Western experts attempted to interpret what was going on in the Soviet hierarchy by watching for all sorts of indirect signs, from who sat or stood where at state and party events, to how people were referred to in Pravda. It was an indirect and not particularly reliable art but you make the best use of what you have. To which end, let’s go in for a little…
The best polling news for the Lib Dems since the tuition fees fiasco of late 2010
30% of LAB supporters tell Ipsos-MORI that they could vote LD A sign of tactical voting? pic.twitter.com/eYwnFBR7YN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 13, 2013 The Ipsos-MORI guide to potential tactical voting One of the pieces of polling that’s come out today which has been a surprise is this from Ipsos-MORI. The question was delightfully simple and economical with words “If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it be?” The summary results are above. For greater…
2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ party
Henry G Manson on the start of conference season Lord Oakeshott’s interview in The House magazine will capture the headlines because of his claim Nick Clegg will cost the Liberal Democrats a large amount of seats. One thing he does point to is less contentious but almost as significant – May 2014 Oakeshott believes “this will be much the biggest test we’ve had on a nationwide basis of our support and our appeal since the general election, so that’s why…
LAB has no worries about Tories returning to the fold because virtually no 2010 CON voters have switched
Four party politics renders historical precedents obsolete So many theories are being put forward about the next general election based on what’s happened in the past before the era of four party politics. The rise of UKIP, I’d suggest, makes this redundant. There are no valid precedents. A common one is that voters will swing back to the main governing party from LAB because that’s what’s happened at previous elections. Only problem is that the move away from the Tories…
Local By-Election Preview : September 12th 2013
Dunstable, Northfields on Central Befordshire (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 5, Ind 4, Lab 1 (Con overall majority of 38) Result at last election (2011): (Emboldened denotes elected) Party Candidate Votes Vote % Independent Julian Murray 877 32.9% Conservative Denise Green 757 28.4% Conservative Jeannette Freeman 753 Labour Michael Rogers 618 23.2% Labour Duncan Ross 594 Independent Laurie Mansfield 198 7.4% Lib Dems Roderick Keyes 168 6.3% Lib Dems Anthony Swain 117 Independent Mary Norman…