It is time that polling was more bottom up rather than top down

It is time that polling was more bottom up rather than top down

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We don’t vote for parties or leaders. We vote for individual MPs The 2013/14 political season is now into its third week and from a poll watcher’s point of view there have been a couple of really good innovations which I think will help the process of election forecasting. I really like the new ComRes question about which party voters think will make them better off. It’s that perception, I’d argue, rather than which is seen as “best on the…

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Will “Angie’s” third term be with the reds or the yellows?

Will “Angie’s” third term be with the reds or the yellows?

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It's General Election day in Germany Can Merkel win again? Exit polls out late afternoon pic.twitter.com/lPNcEj03Un — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 Unless the polls have been very wrong, Angela Merkel is heading for a third term as German Chancellor, a feat that only Adenauer and Kohl have managed since 1949 (and they both went on to win four elections). The great theme of stability in German politics will thus continue, with only four changes in governing party, and only eight…

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The great polling divide: CON wins on big broad themes but when it gets personal LAB ahead

The great polling divide: CON wins on big broad themes but when it gets personal LAB ahead

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Ipsos-MORI find the Tories a best party on economy, crime and immigration. See chart pic.twitter.com/5fdpKbm6xr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 LAB wins on areas that directly affect people LAB seen as best party on education, health care, unemployment and housing. See Ipsos-MORI chart pic.twitter.com/Gy7HuI9fKW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 As ComRes found people think they’d be better off under LAB Latest YouGov sees LAB lead at 4 LAB lead at 4% in today's YouGov for Sunday…

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UPDATED: CON down in 20s with both ComRes and Opinium

UPDATED: CON down in 20s with both ComRes and Opinium

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LAB extends lead with Opinium Other points from ComRes I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 23% (+8 since March 2012) Disagree 50% (-9) I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 28% (-1) Disagree 49% (0) I would expect my family to be better off than it is now if the Conservatives win the next election Agree 22% Disagree 47% I would…

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With the media narrative moving against UKIP the Tory prospects for EURO2014 start to look better

With the media narrative moving against UKIP the Tory prospects for EURO2014 start to look better

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My 10/1 bet is looking even more promising However you look at yesterday’s events at the Ukip conference it is hard to see how it has advanced the purples’ cause. Farage and his team were put under pressure from a hostile media and didn’t perform very well. In fact they looked like a shambles. It was blindingly obvious that Bloom was a loose cannon and action should have been taken much earlier. The party that has blossomed over the past…

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In March Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq Khan for London Mayor when he was 33-1

In March Henry G Manson tipped Sadiq Khan for London Mayor when he was 33-1

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Today Khan hinted that he could stand Back in March Henry G Manson wrote this on PB:- “What puts Sadiq Khan in such a great place for this contest is that Ed Miliband also made him Shadow Minister for London two months ago. This remit will enable him to meet, speak, campaign, engage with the whole London electoral college for this selection ahead of elections in 2014 and the general election a year later. The unions played a large role…

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Labour’s union plans are about culture as much as cash

Labour’s union plans are about culture as much as cash

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Henry G Manson’s Friday column Lord Collins’ interim proposals for Labour’s relationship with its affiliated unions were published yesterday. They don’t settle the issue of union funding and affiliation to Labour. In fact it provides more questions than answers. But while much of the attention has previously been on the pounds, shilling and pence that would be lost, it’s clear that these plans are about so much more than that. Together the proposals demand an organisational and cultural shift from…

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