Dave’s lead as “Best PM” is nearly wiped out when you add Nigel Farage to the equation

Dave’s lead as “Best PM” is nearly wiped out when you add Nigel Farage to the equation

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Tracker questions now need to include UKIP Even when things were at their worst in the polls for the Tories party loyalists clung onto to one polling tracker – who voters saw as “Best PM” where as the chart shows Dave had enjoyed large and in the summer increasing leads. This helped fuel the strong pro-Dave narrative that we saw in the build-up to the conference season. Ed could never be PM, many were arguing, because he was so far…

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David is showing signs of beating Goliath

David is showing signs of beating Goliath

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Henry G Manson’s Friday column Perhaps the most enduring part of Ed Miliband’s conference speech 10 day ago wasn’t the energy policy he outlined, but his charge against David Cameron. The Prime Minister was “strong at standing up to the weak, but weak at standing up to the strong.” In that one sentence the Labour leader was able to neatly bundle everything anxiety about the Tories, from being too close to News International, siding with the richest earners to cut…

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David Herdson looks at the US budget crisis and wonders whether Obama is about to be impeached

David Herdson looks at the US budget crisis and wonders whether Obama is about to be impeached

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How far will the US budget/debt ceiling row go? At first glance, the lead question seems such an obvious Question To Which The Answer Is No that you’d be forgiven for thinking ‘why’, ‘how’ or even ‘what?!’.  In a sensible world, it would be – but then in a sensible world, the US federal government wouldn’t be the best part of a week into shutdown – and political betting is as much as anything an exercise is scenario planning. US…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 3rd 2013

Local By-Election Preview : October 3rd 2013

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Oakfield on Aylesbury Vale (Lib Dem Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 38, Lib Dem 17, Lab 2, UKIP 2 (Con overall majority of 17) Last Election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected Liberal Democrats 475, 437 Conservatives 432, 419 Labour 336, 246 Independent 288 UKIP 205, 164 Candidates duly nominated: Phil Gomm (UKIP), Alison Harrison (Lib Dem), Patrick Martin (Ind), Roy McNickle (Lab), Edward Sims (Con) When you consider how strong the Conservatives are in Aylesbury constituency (Con majority…

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LAB stays in the 40s with YouGov as conference season ends

LAB stays in the 40s with YouGov as conference season ends

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Today’s YouGov is based on fieldwork which started on Tuesday evening and finished late after yesterday – so would have covered the Mili-Mail flare-up and Dave’s big speech yesterday. The latest shares are CON 34, LAB 40, LD 9, UKIP 10. So the two main parties had 74% between them which is a very high proportion compared with other recent polling. It looks like the LDs and Ukip have been squeezed by the parties which had their conferences at the…

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Marf’s and other reaction to Cameron’s speech

Marf’s and other reaction to Cameron’s speech

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I’ve been out all day and have yet to see Dave’s big speech – so I don’t have any views. The following I found interesting. Telegraph man declares EdM the winner Ed Miliband won this year's party conference season. (My @Telegraph blog on Cameron's speech.) http://t.co/fmuL5zzhil — Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) October 2, 2013 Martin writes:- “His (Cameron”s) effort today at Tory conference in Manchester this year will not be ranked as great. It was perfectly fine, with all sorts of…

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