How actual migration numbers appear to follow concern level in Ipsos-MORI issues index

How actual migration numbers appear to follow concern level in Ipsos-MORI issues index

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The link between actual migration flow and concern level In Ipsos-MORI Issues Index See trend chart pic.twitter.com/QzyEJKVADp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013 Other news from this afternoon’s Ipsos-MORI Issues Index Latest Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is out and sees rise for immigration See chart pic.twitter.com/RzvR0c61RT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013 Economy still biggest concern in Ipsos-MORI Issues Index but not at the level it was See trend chart pic.twitter.com/NIe143ad7n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013

CORRECTION: New YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll finds NO with 24pc lead

CORRECTION: New YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll finds NO with 24pc lead

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Amongst men in the YouGov/Times IndyRef poll the NO lead is 10% amongst but 38% with women — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013 30% of 2011 SNP supporters say they’ll vote NO There’s a new YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll which has NO 24% ahead. This is broadly in line with what we’ve seen from other pollsters. The gender gap is something that all the pollsters are picking up and clearly YES has a big challenge making inroads with women….

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Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

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Disproportionate 2010 LD>LAB switching in the marginals could shift more seats We all know that the national vote threshold for LAB overall majority is considerably lower than for the Tories. The reason is partly the boundaries but mostly down to the way the Labour vote is distributed. Generally LAB supporters appear much less likely to turnout in seats where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. But could the overall bias against the Conservatives be even greater at GE2015 than at…

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PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re suffering from a lack of Rapid Eye Movement sleep, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not leave the Great Beyond and delurk. Don’t worry, if you delurk,  you won’t be saying, It’s the End of the World as We Know It, You’ll become Shiny Happy People if you delurk. The round up of recent events (click on the links…

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The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

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In the good old days of political betting, which sadly are no more, the number of seats the parties would get at the next general election were traded like stocks and shares. For those who followed the polls and fancied their political prediction skills this offered a lot of opportunities. Thus on the morning of the May 2010 general election the buy level on LAB on the spread betting markets was 226 seats – 31 short of what the party…

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EdM still tight odds on favourite to be next PM

EdM still tight odds on favourite to be next PM

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EdM remains firm odds on favourite to be next PM with PaddyPower  http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T See odds pic.twitter.com/XbA10nEtqt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2013 Above is the latest betting on PaddyPower on who will be next PM. As can be seen there’s not much of a return in prospect for those backing Miliband. Betting sentiment is still on an outcome that sees the LAB leader entering Number 10. The price assumes that both LAB are in a position to form a government after…

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Peter the Punter on the US elections

Peter the Punter on the US elections

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The Big Picture, Midterms, Hillary It may seem a little early to focus on the US Elections – the Midterms are still a year away and the Presidentials are not due until November 2016 – but regular political punters will know the importance of reviewing the field early. US Politics have provided us with some of our richest pickings and it has often been the case that great value has been obtained by taking an early position. I should say…

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LAB spinners pull off the old “it’s a private poll” ruse

LAB spinners pull off the old “it’s a private poll” ruse

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How to get publicity for a survey that supports your position. Say it's a "private poll" http://t.co/cemqGJdvT0 pic.twitter.com/KEDHGMDX8c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2013 There’s been a bit of a flurry after a piece on the Speccie Coffee House blog about the “private polling behind Labour’s energy bill swagger”. There’s nothing it seems, that journos like more than being given sight of “private polling”. Suddenly something that might be run of the mill has that extra dimension to it and…

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