With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

With so much difference between the week’s polls the best bet is to rely on ICM

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How Betfair punters are seeing GE2015 So many polls – so little clarity With so many different pictures being recorded in the polls in the past week my normal recourse is to revert back to what I regard as the gold standard – the monthly phone poll from ICM. The firm was the top British pollster at three of the past four general elections and got the AV referendum right down to one decimlal point. This came out on Monday…

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Two very different pictures from the first two of tonight’s polls

Two very different pictures from the first two of tonight’s polls

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Closing the gap with ComRes online LAB moves to 11 percent lead with Opinium/Observer Other points from ComRes In a forced choice between Labour and the Conservatives, Labour leads as the party most trusted to … Make your family better off: LAB lead 7% Get the cost of living down: LAB lead 9% Keep prices down generally: LAB lead 11% Protect people’s jobs: LAB lead 16% Keep gas and electricity prices down: LAB lead 20% The Conservatives lead as the…

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My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

My 70-1 Andrew Mitchell next CON leader bet is looking a tad more promising

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Could he fit the bill for the blues after a GE2015 defeat? Just before Christmas last year, a couple of days after the Michael Crick film raising doubts about the whole Plebgate issue, I put a bit of money on Andrew Mitchell for next CON leader with Betfair at 70/1. The last week has seen the affair move forward dramatically in a way that can only help Mitchell. The narrative can only move his way more. He looks like the…

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David Herdson argues that the rising cost of living might not be Miliband’s magic bullet

David Herdson argues that the rising cost of living might not be Miliband’s magic bullet

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Labour could be handing the government the economic debate by default Two news stories this week again highlighted the critical issue of the cost of living, which Ed Miliband made the centrepiece of his conference speech, and which Labour has been pushing ever since its leaders worked out that a genuine economic recovery was underway. The first was the round of energy price hikes, which may or may not be partially related to that very speech – there was plenty…

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The CON European leader is in UKIP’s sights

The CON European leader is in UKIP’s sights

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Henry G Manson on the battle in the North East Many expect UKIP to do well in next year’s European elections. The bookmakers have the purple party at 7/4 to get the most MEPs, with Labour the 4/5 favourite and Conservatives on 4/1. The purple party can look forward to plenty of media coverage and the recent conference embarrassments involving Godfrey Bloom don’t appear to have had much wider impact with their support. One symbolic moment of these particular European…

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Alistair Carmichael at 40-1 is a great bet for next LD leader

Alistair Carmichael at 40-1 is a great bet for next LD leader

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The bruiser who’s been brought in to out-smart Salmond The big surprise in last week’s re-shuffle was the sacking of Scottish Secretary, Michael Moore, and his replacement by the Lib Dem Chief Whip, Alistair Carmichael. Over the next 11 months Carmichael will have an increasingly high-profile role with all the focus on the Scottish referendum. The NO side needed someone who could handle SNP leader Alex Salmond which is why he’s been given the job My view is that Carmichael…

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October 17th Local By-Election Results

October 17th Local By-Election Results

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Dalston on Carlisle Result (Change on 2011 local election): Lib Dem 506 (37% +15%), Con 476 (35% -14%), Lab 186 (14% -7%), UKIP 167 (12% +4%), Green 27 (2%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative on a swing of 14.5% from Con to Lib Dem Westbourne on Chichester Result: Con 184 (41% -21%), UKIP 106 (24%), Green 85 (19%), Lib Dem 68 (15% -23%), Patria 3 (1%) Conservative HOLD on a swing of 22.5% from Con to UKIP Barnfield on Luton…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 17th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : October 17th 2013

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Dalston on Carlisle (Con Defence) Last Local Election: Lab 27, Con 20, Lib Dem 2, Ind 2 (Labour overall majority of 3) Result in ward over recent electoral cycle: 2010: Con 1,715 (47%), Lib Dem 1,241 (34%), Lab 658 (18%) 2011: Con 1,108 (49%), Lib Dem 500 (22%), Lab 478 (21%), UKIP 170 (8%) 2012: Lib Dem 1,033 (52%), Con 481 (24%), Lab 305 (15%), UKIP 174 (9%) Candidates duly nominated: Ruth Alcroft (Lab), Robert Dickinson (UKIP), Michael Gee (Lib…

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