The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

The message from bookies offering GE2015 seat markets is that LAB is some way off an overall majority

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In the good old days of political betting, which sadly are no more, the number of seats the parties would get at the next general election were traded like stocks and shares. For those who followed the polls and fancied their political prediction skills this offered a lot of opportunities. Thus on the morning of the May 2010 general election the buy level on LAB on the spread betting markets was 226 seats – 31 short of what the party…

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EdM still tight odds on favourite to be next PM

EdM still tight odds on favourite to be next PM

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EdM remains firm odds on favourite to be next PM with PaddyPower  http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T See odds pic.twitter.com/XbA10nEtqt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2013 Above is the latest betting on PaddyPower on who will be next PM. As can be seen there’s not much of a return in prospect for those backing Miliband. Betting sentiment is still on an outcome that sees the LAB leader entering Number 10. The price assumes that both LAB are in a position to form a government after…

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Peter the Punter on the US elections

Peter the Punter on the US elections

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The Big Picture, Midterms, Hillary It may seem a little early to focus on the US Elections – the Midterms are still a year away and the Presidentials are not due until November 2016 – but regular political punters will know the importance of reviewing the field early. US Politics have provided us with some of our richest pickings and it has often been the case that great value has been obtained by taking an early position. I should say…

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LAB spinners pull off the old “it’s a private poll” ruse

LAB spinners pull off the old “it’s a private poll” ruse

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How to get publicity for a survey that supports your position. Say it's a "private poll" http://t.co/cemqGJdvT0 pic.twitter.com/KEDHGMDX8c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 29, 2013 There’s been a bit of a flurry after a piece on the Speccie Coffee House blog about the “private polling behind Labour’s energy bill swagger”. There’s nothing it seems, that journos like more than being given sight of “private polling”. Suddenly something that might be run of the mill has that extra dimension to it and…

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Looking at the trend in YouGov polls since mid-Sept it does seem that LAB has had 2-3 pc boost

Looking at the trend in YouGov polls since mid-Sept it does seem that LAB has had 2-3 pc boost

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Update : Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/ The Sun results 28th October – Con 31%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -28 http://t.co/xof1uRF0TJ — YouGov (@YouGov) October 29, 2013 A year ago the party was in the 42%-44% range The two great rules of polling analysis are focus on party shares not leads and always look at the trend. This is what I’ve tried to do in the above chart focusing on the LAB share since Miliband’s…

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CON drop 5 in latest ComRes phone survey to equal the party’s lowest point ever point in this polling series

CON drop 5 in latest ComRes phone survey to equal the party’s lowest point ever point in this polling series

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The 5% increase in OTH in ComResIndy poll is made up of Greens up 2 to 5% and "Other others" up 3 to 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2013 By 80% to 17% those in the ComRes/Indy poll say they back the energy price frees. Only 41%, though, believe that EdM can deliver — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2013 But what’s behind the 5% increase for others? The latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy out and…

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Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON converts

Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON converts

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New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1) Tables here: http://t.co/yhVZrjsukR — Populus (@PopulusPolls) October 28, 2013 The chart shows the broad make-up of the current LAB vote according to today’s poll. Although there is the normal variation from pollster to pollster and poll to poll the big picture is the same – very few CON voters from last time have moved into the LAB camp. Looking back…

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Questions on satisfaction with your own MP should become a regular part of polling

Questions on satisfaction with your own MP should become a regular part of polling

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Our vote is not for a party or PM but for an individual MP A key aspect of UK elections that seems to get sidelined is the nature of what we are actually doing when we vote at general elections. We are not, except in the EU parliament elections, voting for a specific party and we are not voting for a Prime Minister. Our choice is for an individual to represent us at Westminster and to many voters that, as…

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