The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

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One thing’s for sure: They can’t both be right Nine days ago the prominent Oxford political scientist, Dr. Stephen Fisher, produced what appeared to be a startling new forecast for GE2015 that gave the Conservatives a 57% chance of winning an overall majority. Last night the ex-Cambridge mathematician, Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus fame, issued his latest monthly forecast based on a polling average applied to his well known and widely used Commons seat model. This pointed to Labour having…

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Next LAB leader betting price on Yvette Cooper starts to ease as the focus moves to Umunna and Hunt:

Next LAB leader betting price on Yvette Cooper starts to ease as the focus moves to Umunna and Hunt:

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Chuka Umunna 10/1 2nd favourite for next LAB leader with rising star Tristram Hunt now 20/1 pic.twitter.com/TErZ2wazOg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 3, 2013 The Blair and Brown of next generation Labour? There’s a great piece in the Sunday Telegraph today by Matthew d’Ancona in which he identifies rising LAB stars Chuka Umunna and Tristram Hunt as the Blair and Brown next generation Labour. It is a good comparison which I’d not thought of before. On Hunt he writes:- “..Hunt’s…

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CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

CON up 4 in a fortnight in latest Opinium poll for Observer

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@tobyhelm I make that LAB down 1 on 2 wks ago LAB-1, 37 CON+4, 31 UKIP-1, 16 LD-2, 7 I think a CORRECTION might be needed — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2013 Labour lead six in op obs poll. Lab down one tories up four. Not lab down four as I said before. Trust @mikesmithson! — Toby Helm (@tobyhelm) November 2, 2013 @OpiniumResearch for Observer found 41% saying BBC biased 27% say it leans to the left 14% say it favours the right. — Mike…

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Do the media ‘get it’ yet?

Do the media ‘get it’ yet?

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Press, public and politicians – who needs defending from whom It was no doubt a coincidence that Andy Coulson and Rebekah Brooks were in court in relation to the charges against them over the phone hacking scandal on the same day that newspaper and magazine publishers were also in court seeking to prevent the granting of a Royal Charter on press regulation.  Nonetheless, the former made a somewhat ironic backdrop to the latter. Not that it’s just the tabloids.  The…

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Marf on what we are not allowed to talk about and news of 2 PB gatherings

Marf on what we are not allowed to talk about and news of 2 PB gatherings

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A reminder: Next Dirty Dicks do, November 20th 6.30 pm Thanks once again to Fat Steve for making the arrangements. The next PB gathering will be at the Dirty Dicks pub just across the road from Liverpool Street Station in London from 1830 on Wednesday November 20th. These have become very much a tradition and a good time is generally had by all. There’s an area at the back of the pub on the first floor that is semi-reserved for…

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Why I’ve gone for 150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower betting market

Why I’ve gone for 150+ lost LD deposits in this PaddyPower betting market

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PaddyPower  http://t.co/0KpwlJgy4T betting odds on how many deposits the LDs will lose at GE2015 See pic.twitter.com/FgzBKeUled — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2013 Michael Thrasher of the Rallings/Thrasher duo has recently surveyed LD performances and he reported that the situation is dire. The headline “Lib Dems Need Resurrection Not Recovery” sums it up. In many cases in local by-elections the party has seen its vote share has been in low double figures. The places where they’ve been doing okay have been…

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Sadiq Khan, Henry G’s 33-1 tip for next London Mayor, is now top LAB contender in the betting

Sadiq Khan, Henry G’s 33-1 tip for next London Mayor, is now top LAB contender in the betting

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Speaking to @channelinews with my mate @johnbiggs4mayor the next Mayor of Tower Hamlets #OneEastEnd pic.twitter.com/tUurebGJuk — Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) October 29, 2013 Speaking to packed room of @HarrowLabour activists about vital local elections next year #Labourgains #Labourholds pic.twitter.com/V4JQWpLQ3E — Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) October 28, 2013 Back in March Henry G Manson gave what might prove to be one of the best ever political betting tips here when he said get on Sadiq Khan, then at 33/1, for next…

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